Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
This present study demonstrated that liver was involved in 14 %of typhoid patients manifesting with hepatomegaly. Elevation of serum enzymes in typhoid fever was presumably of a muscular origin, while elevation of liver enzyme was relatively less common. This study was performed on 30 female patients diagnosed by ultrasound (US) of abdomen, with paratyphoid A, ranged between (20-40) years compared with 30 healthy control .Patients volunteers were treated with appropriate antibiotics for 14 days and investigations were repeated 2-3 week after completion of treatment. Patients had clinical and biochemical evidence of hepatic dysfunction. The spectrum of hepatic involvement included hepatomegaly , jaundice, derangement of various hepatic func
... Show MoreBackground: changing in lifestyle like displacing place could cause depression which is a common mental disorder that change general health that affect dental caries incidence and severity. The aims of this study were to assess the relation of depression status on prevalence and severity of dental caries among internally displaced people. Material and Method: The sample include 121 internally displaced people aged from 13-17 years. Method for depression measuring is by using Children Depression Inventory (CDI2) questionnaire. Dental caries is measured by using caries experience (DMFs) and caries severity D1-4. Result: the mean value for decayed and missing surfaces were higher in high depression grade as compering with low and medium dep
... Show MoreThe current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
... Show MoreProviding useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c
... Show MoreRutting has a significant impact on the pavements' performance. Rutting depth is often used as a parameter to assess the quality of pavements. The Asphalt Institute (AI) design method prescribes a maximum allowable rutting depth of 13mm, whereas the AASHTO design method stipulates a critical serviceability index of 2.5 which is equivalent to an average rutting depth of 15mm. In this research, static and repeated compression tests were performed to evaluate the permanent strain based on (1) the relationship between mix properties (asphalt content and type), and (2) testing temperature. The results indicated that the accumulated plastic strain was higher during the repeated load test than that during the static load tests. Notably, temperatur
... Show MoreThere are numerous bidirectional interactions between the reproductive system and the liver. Sex steroids regulate metabolic health through signaling effects in both peripheral and central metabolic tissues, including adipose tissue, liver, skeletal muscle, and brain, and have a role in the etiology of structural and functional liver diseases. Blood samples were obtained from 90 healthy women (control group) and 90 women that have hormonal changes (patients’ group). The levels of reproductive hormones (follicle stimulation hormone/FSH, luteinizing hormone/LH, estradiol/E2, progesterone/P4) were measured by using fully automated Cobas E411, whereas those of liver enzymes (alanine transaminase /ALT, aspartate aminotransferase/AST, a
... Show MoreUrban Balance is one of the important indicators that leads to an assessment of the urbanization process in a particular country , province or even a city that is multi-centered. By examining the data related to Anba province, it was found that the value of this indicator is equal to 0.96, which is less than the absolute one, and therefore the urbanization in the province is distributed collectively
The development of a mathematical or statistical model for estimating urban growth is a complex process due to the overlap between indicators or variables that can be adopted to calculate estimate growth rates Al-Qaim city has been considered as an example to develop a statistical method by which changes
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