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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 21 2021
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
A Comparison between Static and Repeated Load Test to Predict Asphalt Concrete Rut Depth

Rutting has a significant impact on the pavements' performance. Rutting depth is often used as a parameter to assess the quality of pavements. The Asphalt Institute (AI) design method prescribes a maximum allowable rutting depth of 13mm, whereas the AASHTO design method stipulates a critical serviceability index of 2.5 which is equivalent to an average rutting depth of 15mm. In this research, static and repeated compression tests were performed to evaluate the permanent strain based on (1) the relationship between mix properties (asphalt content and type), and (2) testing temperature. The results indicated that the accumulated plastic strain was higher during the repeated load test than that during the static load tests. Notably, temperatur

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
The efficacy of the constitutional organization of the Iraqi freedom to choose his personal status in the Iraqi constitution

We concluded that the issue of freedom in general is one of the important issues of the constitutional legislator, so he was keen to include it in the introduction and content of his texts, because the society suffered from scourge and injustice  And tyranny by the rulers and the ruled made freedom at the mercy of their fatwas. The international and Arab declarations stipulated the necessity of giving public freedoms without racial or national discrimination, but rather for all humanity. It has arranged consequences for those who failed to abide by the conventions, encouraging them to urge national legislators to stipulate public freedoms in Their constitutions, including our desired freedom here, is the freedom of the Iraqi. The co

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
“Small wave number and less of Reynolds number inflow analysis in peristaltic transportation of “Hyperbolic tangent fluid” in curved channels by employing the influence of radial magnetic force”
Abstract<p>Through this article, we studied the peristaltic motion of “Hyperbolic Tangent” fluid in the geometry of curvature channel by using the analysis of large wavelength and less of Reynolds number. The matter has controlled mathematically by the partial differential equations of continuity, motion, heat transfer. In the study, we used the impact of radial magnetic force. The obtained coupled non-linear equations of above equations have solved by an approximation technical. Locked formula solutions of the stream function, axial velocity, heat function has evaluated. The influence of curvature is analysed and took it into account. The impact of sundry variables on the inflow features ha</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting The Wet and Dry Rainy Seasons in Mosul Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Investigation the Relationship between Spermatogenesis and the Levels of Some Hormones in a Sample of Infertile Iraqi Males with Azoospermia and Oligospermia

The objective of this study was to assess the levels of antiMullerian hormone (AMH), Follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), testosteron,  luteinizing hormone (LH),  and estradiol (E2) as markers of spermatogenesis between fertile and infertile males. This study was conducted at (AlRamadi Teaching Hospital for maternity and children) and included 136 males partners of infertile couples. Samples were classified according to the WHO criteria of semen analysis into three groups; Azoospermia, Oligospermia, and normal(control). Assay  levels of these hormones were made in the serum and the semen of each sample. The results showed that the level of AMH in serum samples was non-significantly decreased (P>0.05) in both Azo

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Ultrasound of the Rotator Cuff: A Comparison of Ultrasonographic and Physical Examination Finding in SeventyCases

Background : Shoulder pain is a common problem that can pose difficult diagnostic and therapeutic challenges for the family physician It is the third most common musculoskeletal complaint in the general population, and account for 5% of all general practitioners musculoskeletal consults Objective: To determine the diagnostic performance of ultrasonography compared with the physical examination for detection of rotator cuff tears in painful shoulder syndrome. Method: Prospective study was done on seventy patients (48 male, 22 female), age ranged between 30-70 years (mean age 50 years), From February 2007 to July 2011, were subjected to comparative study in Al-Kindy teaching hospital with rotator cuff tears, including physical and ultrasonogr

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Age and Gender on Fetuin-A and Some Biochemical parameters in Blood Sera of Iraqi patients with T2DM: A comparative study

The serum protein test includes measurement of the level of total protein(albumin, globulin). Fetuin-A is a blood protein made in liver. It can inhibit insulin receptor, enhance insulin sensitivity and make the individuals more likely to develop type 2 diabetes, then disorder in lipid profile (Total cholesterol(TC), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), Triglyceride(TG) and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-c) . To evaluate Fetuin-A, total protein, albumin, globulin, HbAlc and lipid profile in 200 adult and elderly Iraqi patients with type 2 Diabetes Mellitus were taken and compare them with 200 subjects as a healthy control. The laboratory analysis(for patients and

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Prevalence and Risk Factors for Eye Problems among 20-65 Years Old Iraqi Diabetics Patients

Background: Diabetes is a chronic illness that requires continuing medical care to prevent acute complications and to reduce the risk of long-term complication. Eye
diseases are the most feared complication of diabetes. The main disorders include diabetic retinopathy, cataracts and glaucoma. Early detection of these conditions is
important to avoid risk of vision affection or even blindness.
Objectives: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors for eye problems among 20-65 years old diabetics' patients.
Methods: We studied 2540 diabetic patients selected from the Specialized Center for Endocrinology & Diabetes and the National Center for Treatment & Research of
Diabetes in Al-Mu

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison Study between Adipsin Levels in Sera of Iraqi Patients with Diabetes and Neuropathy

The current study was designed to compare some of the vital markers in the sera of diabetic and neuropathy patients via estimating Adipsin, Fasting blood Glucose(FBG), Glycated(HbA1c) hemoglobin, Homeostasis Model Assessment Index (Homa IR ), Cholesterol, High density lipoprotein (HDL), Triglycerides (T.G), Low-density, and lipoprotein (LDL), Very Low Density Lipoprotein (VLDL), in sera of Iraqi patients with diabetes and neuropathy. A total  of ninety  subjects  were divided into three groups: group I (30 diabetic with neuropathy males) and group II (30 diabetic males without neuropathy), and 30 healthy sujects were employed as control group. The results showed a significant decline in Adipsin levels (p>0.05) in neuropathy, T2DM g

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 08 2021
Journal Name
Turkish Online Journal Of Qualitative Inquiry (tojqi)
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