Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The current research aims to evaluate liquidity (as an independent variable) to improve the bank’s profitability (as a dependent variable ), by the bank’s ability to maximize its profits from its business results without excessive bank’s liquidity, so that may affect negatively affects the bank’s reputation and it’s dealers confidence in facing their financial obligations. and this may lead trying to come out among other recommendations including contributing to obtain, the bank’s ability to achieve liquidity balance to maximize its profits. This research has been applied to the sample induced intentionally by choosing three Iraqi private banks. The researcher used financial indicators to assess the bank’s liq
... Show MoreA mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the
... Show MoreA mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the others
... Show MoreIn this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi
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The Non - Homogeneous Poisson process is considered as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).
This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto , to estimate th
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for
... Show MoreProducing pseudo-random numbers (PRN) with high performance is one of the important issues that attract many researchers today. This paper suggests pseudo-random number generator models that integrate Hopfield Neural Network (HNN) with fuzzy logic system to improve the randomness of the Hopfield Pseudo-random generator. The fuzzy logic system has been introduced to control the update of HNN parameters. The proposed model is compared with three state-ofthe-art baselines the results analysis using National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) statistical test and ENT test shows that the projected model is statistically significant in comparison to the baselines and this demonstrates the competency of neuro-fuzzy based model to produce
... Show MoreThe unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I
... Show MoreThe Knowledge Workers is The Largest And Most Powerful Resource Of The Organizational Excellence it is A Precious Treasure, Therefore Find Organizations at present is looking for them and seek to invest their ideas For achieving excellence, creativity and access to the excellence Organizational , As a result of their importance in terms of engagement and influence in the success or failure of the as an organizational Of The Research is Measuring The Correlation And Impact Between Knowledge Workers And Organizational Excellence in Sample Of Companies Iraqi Industrial By Standing The Dimensions Of Knowledge Workers ( Characteristics , Skills , Roles , Competencies ) And
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