Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
4-amino-3-(4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) phenyl)-1, 2, 4-triazole-5-thione was synthesized by to method the first one from melt reaction of 4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5-dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) benzoic acid with Thiocarbonyldihydrazide, the second method from convert the corresponded acid hydrazide to potassium 2-(4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5-dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) benzoyl) hydrazinecarbodithioate salt then react with hydrazine hydrate. Newly Schiff base (7a-7f) were synthesized from reaction the 4-amino-1, 2, 4-triazol with substituted hydroxybenzaldehyde. The resulting compounds were characterized by IR, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and HRMS data. 2, 2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazide (DPPH) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assays
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc
... Show MoreCar drivers hear many kinds of noise inside their vehicles' cabins, and the most annoying ones are the noise generated by tires, engines, and outside winds. Noise affects the comfort of the passengers inside the cabin, and it’s sad to say that modern cars are noisier in many kinds of noise signals due to using a lot of plastic materials in new budget cars. For expensive and luxury cars, the problem is solved by using better sound insulation materials, but for the budget ones, the approach used here is effective. It is called Active Noise Cancellation and can be done using analog or digital electronics. An operational amplifier and filters are used for the analog one, and in the digital one, signal processor chips are used. In engineeri
... Show MoreBackground: Periodontitis is an inflammatory disease that affects the supporting tissues of the teeth; Smoking is an important risk factor for periodontitis induces alveolar bone loss and cause an imbalance between bone resorption and bone deposition. The purpose of this study is to detect and compare the presence of incipient periodontitis among young smokers and non-smokers by measuring the distance between cement-enamel junction and alveolar crest (CEJ-Ac) using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT). Material and methods: The total sample composed of fifty two participants, thirty one smokers and twenty one non-smokers (age range 14-22 years). Periodontal parameters: plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI) were recorded for all teeth exc
... Show Moreطريقة سهلة وبسيطة ودقيقة لتقدير السبروفلوكساسين في وجود السيفاليكسين او العكس بالعكس في خليط منهما. طبقت الطريقة المقترحة بطريقة الاضافة القياسية لنقطة بنجاح في تقدير السبروفلوكساسين بوجود السيفاليكسين كمتداخل عند الاطوال الموجية 240-272.3 نانوميتر وبتراكيز مختلفة من السبروفلوكساسين 4-18 مايكروغرام . مل-1 وكذلك تقدير السيفاليكسين بوجود السبروفلوكساسين الذي يتداخل باطوال موجية 262-285.7 نانوميتر وبتراكيز مخ
... Show MoreNew twin compounds having four-, five-, and seven- membered heterocyclic rings were synthesized via Schiff bases (1a,b) which were obtained by the condensation of o-tolidine with two moles of 4- N,N-dimethyl benzaldehyde or 4- chloro benzaldehyde. The reaction of these Schiff bases with two moles of phenyl isothiocyanate, phenyl isocyanate or naphthyl isocyanate as in scheme(1) led to the formation of bis -1,3- diazetidin- 2- thion and bis -1,3- diazetidin -2-one derivatives (2-4 a,b). While in scheme (2) bis imidazolidin-4-one (5a,b) ,bistetrazole (6a,b) and bis thiazolidin-4-one (7a,b) derivatives were produced by reacting the mentioned Schiff bases(1a,b)with two moles of glycine, sodium azide or thioglycolic acid, respectively. The new b
... Show MoreThin films ZrO2: MgO nanostructure have been synthesized by a radio frequency magnetron plasma sputtering technique at different ratios of MgO (0,6, 8 and 10)% percentage to be used as the gas sensor for nitrogen dioxide NO2. The samples were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD), atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) and sensing properties were also investigated. The average particle size of all prepared samples was found lower than 33.22nm and the structure was a monoclinic phase. The distribution of grain size was found lower than36.3 nm and uninformed particles on the surface. Finally, the data of sensing properties have been discussed, where the
... Show MoreTight reservoirs have attracted the interest of the oil industry in recent years according to its significant impact on the global oil product. Several challenges are present when producing from these reservoirs due to its low to extra low permeability and very narrow pore throat radius. Development strategy selection for these reservoirs such as horizontal well placement, hydraulic fracture design, well completion, and smart production program, wellbore stability all need accurate characterizations of geomechanical parameters for these reservoirs. Geomechanical properties, including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), static Young’s modulus (Es), and Poisson’s ratio (υs), were measured experimentally using both static and dynamic met
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