Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The cities are not yet a temporal status in the process of the human and civilization development. The cities consider as a life pattern, this mean that people cannot live without cities, which surround us. Several phenomena like globalization, revolution of information, technical development, increased of consumption, do not confirmed without the living in cities. The urbanization – in its simple meaning – means transferring from rural community to city community. In other word, it means that socioeconomic changes happened subject to the patterns and conditions of the urban life. Each government depend a certain policy, this policy contains set of plans and programs, that targeting to affect the population factors and the st
... Show MoreThere is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo
... Show MoreThe present work aimed to make a comparative investigation between three different ionospheric models: IRI-2020, ASAPS and VOACAP. The purpose of the comparative study is to investigate the compatibility of predicting the Maximum Usable Frequency parameter (MUF) over mid-latitude region during the severe geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. Three stations distributed in the mid-latitudes were selected for study; these are (Athens (23.50o E, 38.00o N), Jeju (124.53o E, 33.6o N) and Pt. Arguello (239.50o W, 34.80o N). The daily MUF outcomes were calculated using the tested models for the three adopted sites, for a span of five-day (the day of the event and two days preceding and following the event day). The calculated datasets were co
... Show MoreArtificial Neural Networks (ANN) is one of the important statistical methods that are widely used in a range of applications in various fields, which simulates the work of the human brain in terms of receiving a signal, processing data in a human cell and sending to the next cell. It is a system consisting of a number of modules (layers) linked together (input, hidden, output). A comparison was made between three types of neural networks (Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN), Back propagation network (BPL), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). he study found that the lowest false prediction rate was for the recurrentt network architecture and using the Data on graduate students at the College of Administration and Economics, Univer
... Show MoreDarcy-Weisbach (D-W) is a typical resistance equation in pressured flow; however, some academics and engineers prefer Hazen-Williams (H-W) for assessing water distribution networks. The main difference is that the (D-W) friction factor changes with the Reynolds number, while the (H-W) coefficient is a constant value for a certain material. This study uses WaterGEMS CONNECT Edition update 1 to find an empirical relation between the (H-W) and (H-W) equations for two 400 mm and 500 mm pipe systems. The hydraulic model was done, and two scenarios were applied by changing the (H-W) coefficient to show the difference in results of head loss. The results showed a strong relationship between both equations with correlation coefficients of 0.999,
... Show MoreThis research studies the comparison of deep neural network models and performance evaluation to predict the gold prices of time series, where the gold prices contain high fluctuations and non-linear patterns that are difficult to capture using traditional models, which makes predicting them a significant challenge. Therefore, the focus was on using deep learning models represented by (LSTM), (Bi-LSTM), (GRU) and (Bi-GRU). The results showed the superiority of the (Bi-GRU) model according to comparison criteria (MSE), (RMSE), (MAE), and (R∧2) compared to other models because it was able to understand the time patterns better by processing the data in both directions and provided superior performance, which indicates its effectiveness, eff
... Show MoreThis study included a survey and review of the scientific names of the marsh insects (aquatic and surrounding it) for the purpose of unifying and updating the database.
The survey reveals 109 species under 77 genera that belong to 32 families and 7 orders as follow: Coleoptera (44 species), Diptera (7 species) Ephemeroptera (2 species), Hemiptera (14 species), Hymenoptera (11 species), Lepidoptera (2 species) and Odonata with 29 species.
Information of specimens' collection for each species, synonyms and geographical distribution were provided.
In this paper new methods were presented based on technique of differences which is the difference- based modified jackknifed generalized ridge regression estimator(DMJGR) and difference-based generalized jackknifed ridge regression estimator(DGJR), in estimating the parameters of linear part of the partially linear model. As for the nonlinear part represented by the nonparametric function, it was estimated using Nadaraya Watson smoother. The partially linear model was compared using these proposed methods with other estimators based on differencing technique through the MSE comparison criterion in simulation study.