Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The aim of the research is to study the comparison between (ARIMA) Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and(ANNs) Artificial Neural Networks models and to select the best one for prediction the monthly relative humidity values depending upon the standard errors between estimated and observe values . It has been noted that both can be used for estimation and the best on among is (ANNs) as the values (MAE,RMSE, R2) is )0.036816,0.0466,0.91) respectively for the best formula for model (ARIMA) (6,0,2)(6,0,1) whereas the values of estimates relative to model (ANNs) for the best formula (5,5,1) is (0.0109, 0.0139 ,0.991) respectively. so that model (ANNs) is superior than (ARIMA) in a such evaluation.
The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r
... Show MoreReceipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021
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The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments
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In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
... Show MoreBackground: Osteoid osteoma(OO) is a relatively common benign skeletal neoplasm of unknown etiology that is composed of osteoid and woven bone, usually seen in adolescent and young males Although, the clinical, radiological and scintigraphic features of OO have been well described, these features may be misleading or altered in the cases of lesser trochanter of the femur which is relatively uncommon location for OO with a few number of cases reported up to date. Case Presentation: We report a case of a 20-year-old man who presented with painful limpThe pain had begun six months earlier and was made worse by walking and by exercise., with normal initial X-rays .The diagnosis was made after six months when typical Computed tomography, magneti
... Show MoreBackground: Osteoid osteoma(OO) is a relatively common benign skeletal neoplasm of unknown etiology that is composed of osteoid and woven bone, usually seen in adolescent and young males Although, the clinical, radiological and scintigraphic features of OO have been well described, these features may be misleading or altered in the cases of lesser trochanter of the femur which is relatively uncommon location for OO with a few number of cases reported up to date.Case Presentation: We report a case of a 20-year-old man who presented with painful limpThe pain had begun six months earlier and was made worse by walking and by exercise., with normal initial X-rays .The diagnosis was made after six months when typical Computed tomography, magne
... Show MoreTime series analysis is the statistical approach used to analyze a series of data. Time series is the most popular statistical method for forecasting, which is widely used in several statistical and economic applications. The wavelet transform is a powerful mathematical technique that converts an analyzed signal into a time-frequency representation. The wavelet transform method provides signal information in both the time domain and frequency domain. The aims of this study are to propose a wavelet function by derivation of a quotient from two different Fibonacci coefficient polynomials, as well as a comparison between ARIMA and wavelet-ARIMA. The time series data for daily wind speed is used for this study. From the obtained results, the
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