The study of economic growth indicators is of fundamental importance in estimating the effectiveness of economic development plans, as well as the great role it plays in determining appropriate economic policies in order to optimally use the factors that lead to the dynamics of growth in Iraq, especially during a certain period of time. The gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices), which is considered a part of the national accounts, which is considered as an integrated dynamic of statistics that produces in front of policy makers the possibility of determining whether the economy is witnessing a state of expansion or evaluating economic activity and its efficiency in order to reach the size of the overall economy. The research aims to determine the best and most efficient statistical model to be used in forecasting the GDP in Iraq based on time series data for the period from (1970-2020) years. Where the general trend models (Linear trend, Quadratic trend and Exponential Trend) were applied, and the three models were compared to choose the best model using some statistical criteria, including the Akiaki Information Standard (AIC) and Schwartz Standard (SBS). The results showed that the appropriate model is the Quadratic trend model, were predicting and forecasting values are close to the real values of the GDP series.
Shatt Al-Hilla was considered one of the important branches of Euphrates River that supplies irrigation water to millions of dunams of planted areas. It is important to control the velocity and water level along the river to maintain the required level for easily diverting water to the branches located along the river. So, in this research, a numerical model was developed to simulate the gradually varied unsteady flow in Shatt AL-Hilla. The present study aims to solve the continuity and momentum (Saint-Venant) equations numerically to predict the hydraulic characteristics in the river using Galerkin finite element method. A computer program was designed and built using the programming language FORTRAN-77. Fifty kilometers was consid
... Show MoreIs in this research review of the way minimum absolute deviations values based on linear programming method to estimate the parameters of simple linear regression model and give an overview of this model. We were modeling method deviations of the absolute values proposed using a scale of dispersion and composition of a simple linear regression model based on the proposed measure. Object of the work is to find the capabilities of not affected by abnormal values by using numerical method and at the lowest possible recurrence.
The high cost of chemical analysis of water has necessitated various researches into finding alternative method of determining portable water quality. This paper is aimed at modelling the turbidity value as a water quality parameter. Mathematical models for turbidity removal were developed based on the relationships between water turbidity and other water criteria. Results showed that the turbidity of water is the cumulative effect of the individual parameters/factors affecting the system. A model equation for the evaluation and prediction of a clarifier’s performance was developed:
Model: T = T0(-1.36729 + 0.037101∙10λpH + 0.048928t + 0.00741387∙alk)
The developed model will aid the predictiv
... Show MoreThe results show the inability to apply the Taylor rule within inflation and GDP Gaps because the monetary behave is elated from the Iraqi economy.
When applying the Taylor rule to exchange rate with the inflation and the output gap, the results do not match the nominal price announced by the central thing, which proves the lack of commitment by the Central Bank by using the Taylor rule, whether short-run interest rate or exchange rate (Nominal Anchor), so it did not stay to the Iraqi Central Bank only using the principle of Taylor with the expected inflation rate below the level of output (Macro activity) for the separation of monetary behavior from the real one o
... Show MoreThe research aims to clarify the response of the GDP to the M1 shock. It includes access to the results using standard methods, where the standard model was built according to quarterly data using the program STATA 17. According to the joint integration model ARDL, the research found a long-term equilibrium positive for the relationship between GDP and the money supply in Iraq, as the change in the money supply by a certain percentage will lead to a change in GDP by about 71% of that percentage. In the event of a shock in the Iraqi economy, the impact of the M1 will differ from what it was before the shock, as the shock will increase its effectiveness towards GDP by about 10% more than before the shock. At the same time, the relationship
... Show MoreIn this study, vegetable tanned leather waste of cow (VTLW-C) is used as adsorbent for removing methyl violet 10B dye from aqueous solution. The VTLW-C adsorbent was characterized by FTIR and SEM in order to evaluate its surface properties before using in adsorption experiments. Batch adsorption method was applied to study the effect of different factors such as weight of leather waste, time of shaking, and starting concentration of methyl violet 10B dye. Different isothermal models such as Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin-Radushkevich (D–R) were used to analyze the experimental data. Kinetic study proceeds using (PFO) kinetic model and (PSO) kinetic model. The results showed better agreement with the Freundlich model; this means
... Show MoreDust storms are typical in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Middle East; the frequency and severity of dust storms have grown dramatically in Iraq in recent years. This paper identifies the dust storm sources in Iraq using remotely sensed data from Meteosat-spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) bands. Extracted combined satellite images and simulated frontal dust storm trajectories, using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, are used to identify the most influential sources in the Middle East and Iraq. Out of 132 dust storms in Iraq during 2020–2023, the most frequent occurred in the spring and summer. A dust source frequency percentage map (DSFPM) is generated using ArcGIS so
... Show MoreReservoir characterization is an important component of hydrocarbon exploration and production, which requires the integration of different disciplines for accurate subsurface modeling. This comprehensive research paper delves into the complex interplay of rock materials, rock formation techniques, and geological modeling techniques for improving reservoir quality. The research plays an important role dominated by petrophysical factors such as porosity, shale volume, water content, and permeability—as important indicators of reservoir properties, fluid behavior, and hydrocarbon potential. It examines various rock cataloging techniques, focusing on rock aggregation techniques and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify specific and
... Show MoreSpatial data analysis is performed in order to remove the skewness, a measure of the asymmetry of the probablitiy distribution. It also improve the normality, a key concept of statistics from the concept of normal distribution “bell shape”, of the properties like improving the normality porosity, permeability and saturation which can be are visualized by using histograms. Three steps of spatial analysis are involved here; exploratory data analysis, variogram analysis and finally distributing the properties by using geostatistical algorithms for the properties. Mishrif Formation (unit MB1) in Nasiriya Oil Field was chosen to analyze and model the data for the first eight wells. The field is an anticline structure with northwest- south
... Show MoreThis paper proposes a new structure of the hybrid neural controller based on the identification model for nonlinear systems. The goal of this work is to employ the structure of the Modified Elman Neural Network (MENN) model into the NARMA-L2 structure instead of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model in order to construct a new hybrid neural structure that can be used as an identifier model and a nonlinear controller for the SISO linear or nonlinear systems. Weight parameters of the hybrid neural structure with its serial-parallel configuration are adapted by using the Back propagation learning algorithm. The ability of the proposed hybrid neural structure for nonlinear system has achieved a fast learning with minimum number
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