In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

The importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h

Forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti

The monthly time series of the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentrations in Euphrates River at Nasria was analyzed as a time series. The data used for the analysis was the monthly series during (1977-2000).

The series was tested for nonhomogenity and found to be nonhomogeneous. A significant positive jump was observed after 1988. This nonhomogenity was removed using a method suggested by Yevichevich (7). The homogeneous series was then normalized using Box and Cox (2) transformation. The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component. This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain). The above a

The child spends several hours watching animated films, which affect their behavior negatively and positively. This calls parents to monitor what their children are watching, to show them the serious risks of some violent films, and to direct them toward choosing both positive and educational programs that develop their positive behavior. This study aimed to explore the positive and negative effects of watching animation films as well as to identify the role animation films in increasing the cognitive knowledge of kindergarteners. To do this, the descriptive and analytical methods were used. A questionnaire was adopted as a tool for data collection. A scale of (45) items classified into three categories was applied on  the r

In this study, simply supported reinforced concrete (RC) beams were analyzed using the Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM). This is a powerful method that is used for the treatment of discontinuities resulting from the fracture process and crack propagation in concrete. The mesoscale is used in modeling concrete as a two-phasic material of coarse aggregate and cement mortar. Air voids in the cement paste will also be modeled. The coarse aggregate used in the casting of these beams is a rounded aggregate consisting of different maximum sizes. The maximum size is 25 mm in the first model, and in the second model, the maximum size is 20 mm. The compressive strength used in these beams is equal to 26 MPa.

The subje

Purpose: To determine the impact of service encounter in stimulating voluntary customer behaviors.

• Approach / methodology: It was selected a sample of customers Bank Iraqi Trade (TBI) was (105) individual, using a questionnaire designed in the light of previous studies, was drafted scale and tested in the light of a group of statistical methods developed (reliability coefficient, reliability coefficient composite, convergence). Then test hypotheses through structural equation modeling.
• Results: The behaviors and characteristics of the service provider in effect urged bank customers to perform voluntary extra, as the service environment service encounter