There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

Since the beginning of the last century, the competition for water resources has intensified dramatically, especially between countries that have no agreements in place for water resources that they share. Such is the situation with the Euphrates River which flows through three countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) and represents the main water resource for these countries. Therefore, the comprehensive hydrologic investigation needed to derive optimal operations requires reliable forecasts. This study aims to analysis and create a forecasting model for data generation from Turkey perspective by using the recorded inflow data of Ataturk reservoir for the period (Oct. 1961 - Sep. 2009). Based on 49 years of real inflow data

      This paper aims to introduce a concept of an equilibrium point of a dynamical system which will call it almost global asymptotically stable. We also propose and analyze a prey-predator model with a suggested  function growth in prey species. Firstly the existence and local stability of all its equilibria are studied. After that the model is extended to an optimal control problem to obtain an optimal harvesting strategy. The discrete time version of Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied to solve the optimality problem. The characterization of the optimal harvesting variable and the adjoint variables are derived. Finally these theoretical results are demonstrated with numerical simulations.

In this research, a Co-polymer (Styrene / Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside) was synthesized from glucose in four steps using Addition Polymerization according to the radical mechanism using Benzoyl Peroxide (BP) as initiator. Initially, Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside monomer was prepared in three steps and the reaction was followed by (HPLC, FT-IR, TLC), in the fourth step the monomer was polymerized with Styrene and the structure was determined by FT-IR and NMR spectroscopy. The reaction conditions (temperature, reaction time, material ratios) were also studied to obtain the highest yield, the relative, specific and reduced viscosity of the prepared polymer was determined, from which the viscosity ave

Infertility is a disease of the reproductive system defined by the failure to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sexual intercourse. Worldwide, infertility affects approximately 15% of all couples trying to conceive. Male infertility is responsible for about 50% of the infertility cases. Chromosomal abnormalities and Y-chromosome microdeletions are the most common genetic causes of male infertility. Klinefelter syndrome (KS) is the most prevalent factor of the chromosomal abnormality in the infertile male. Azoospermia Factor (AZF) microdeletions located on the Y chromosome are one of the recurrent genetic cause of male infertility. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of chromosomal anoma

    Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is widely used in many complex applications. Artificial neural network is a statistical intelligent technique resembling the characteristic of the human neural network.  The prediction of time series from the important topics in statistical sciences to assist administrations in the planning and make the accurate decisions, so the aim of this study is to analysis the monthly hypertension in Kalar for the period (January 2011- June 2018) by applying an autoregressive –integrated- moving average model  and artificial neural networks and choose the best and most efficient model for patients with hypertension in Kalar through the comparison between neural networks and Box- Je

The present study was carried out in the experimental in the nursery at Al – Dorah (Baghdad). During spring 2015 under natural environmental conditions in plastic house to evaluated the effect of different concentrations of IBA (100, 300, 500, 700 and 1000( mg/1 on different cutting position (basal, sub terminal and terminal) for different dipping times (24, 48) hours, on Cassia surattensis Burm. stem cuttings rooting. After 2 months of planting the results demonstrated that the basal cutting treated with 1000 mg/l IBA in 48 hours dipping time showed the earlier rooted period (4) weeks compared with control treatment 8 weeks. The same treatment also gave the highest mean rooting numbers 1.56per cutting and the highest mean rooting leng

PC-based controller is an approach to control systems with Real-Time parameters by controlling selected manipulating variable to accomplish the objectives. Shell and tube heat exchanger have been identified as process models that are inherently nonlinear and hard to control due to unavailability of the exact models’ descriptions. PC and analogue input output card will be used as the controller that controls the heat exchanger hot stream to the desired temperature.
The control methodology by using four speed pump as manipulating variable to control the temperature of the hot stream to cool to the desired temperature.
In this work, the dynamics of cross flow shell and tube heat exchanger is modeled from step changes in cold water f

Leukemia is the most common cancer in children which causes death despite the high survival rate. Therefore,  new methods are required to find a suitable therapy. A small RNA called microRNAs (miRNAs) is used as a biomarker for cancer diagnosis and early prognostic evaluation. Expression levels of three miRNAs from the 3' arm (miR-142-3p, miR-223-3p and miR-146-3p) were detected in serum samples from 30 acute leukemic children and from 30 healthy individuals by using qPCR. The miR-142-3p and miR-146-3p profiles were significantly downregulated (P=0.0010 and 0.0012, respectively), while miR-223 was found to be significantly upregulated (P= 0.0044) in the pateints. Serum level of C/EBP-β

Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagn