Comparison of Climate Change Impact upon Water Productivity of Winter Wheat in Northern and Southern Regions of Iraq
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Abstract<p>Maximizing the water productivity for any agricultural system is considered an adaptation to the potential climate change crisis. It is required, especially in arid and semi-arid environments in Iraq. Therefore, this study assessed the potential impact of climate change on the different environments in the Qadissiya and Nineveh provinces. The ensemble of six GCM models employed for the regional climate model of the HCLIM-ALADIN in high-resolution 10*10 km<sup>2</sup> and Aqua-Crop was used to examine the response of water productivity and yield of winter wheat. With and without CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration changing under different water regimes in the near term (2020-2040) and mid-term (2041-2060) related to the reference period (1995-2014). The model was validated in both provinces to indicate good performance of RRMSE (4.54- 7.1) and d, R<sup>2 </sup>( 1- 0.99). The main findings revealed an increase in water productivity, yield production, and transpiration reduction under the CO2-changing scenario and behaved stable under the fixed concentration scenario. The developed schedule enhanced water productivity in both locations. The assessment study examined the resilience of arid and semi-arid agricultural lands under future climate change.</p>
