Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This paper aims to study the effect of circular Y-shaped fin arrangement to improve the low thermal response rates of a double-tube heat exchanger containing Paraffin phase change material (PCM). ANSYS software is employed to perform the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of the heat exchanger, including fluid flow, heat transfer, and the phase change process. The optimum state of the fin configuration is derived through sensitivity analysis by evaluating the geometrical parameters of the Y-shaped fin. For the same height of the fins (10 mm), the solidification time is reduced by almost 22%, and the discharging rate is enhanced by almost 26% using Y-shaped fins compared with the straight fins. The results demonstrate that the sol

The effect of thermal treatment on optical constants of pure PMMA and with addition (15 and 35) ml of coumarin at different temperatures (100, 110 and 120) C⁰ for 1 hour were investigated. Cast method used to prepares films of pure PMMA and PMMA with (15 and 35) of coumarin. UV/VIS spectrometer technique used to measure the absorption spectra for these films. The optical constant (absorption spectra and absorption coefficient) don’t changes after applied temperatures in pure PMMA film but the optical constant (absorption spectra and absorption coefficient) in PMMA with (15 and 35) ml of coumarin increased with applied temperatures. The optical energy gap of pure PMMA and PMMA with (15 and 35) ml of coumarin sl

This study deals with free convection heat transfer for the outer surface of two
cylinders of the shape of (Triangular & Rectangular fined cylinders with 8-fins),
putted into two different spaces; small one with dimension of (Length=1.2m,
height=1m, width=0.9m) and large one with dimension of (Length=3.6m, height =3m,
width=2.7m). The experimental work was conducted with air as a heat transport
medium. These cylinders were fixed at different slope angles (0o, 30o, 60o and 90o)
.The heat fluxes were (279, 1012, 1958, 3005, 4419) W/m2, where heat transferred by
convection and radiation. In large space, the results show that the heat transfer from
the triangular finned cylinder is maximum at a slope angle equals

Numerical investigation has been carried out on heat transfer and friction factor characteristics of copper-water nanofluid flow in a constant heat-fluxed tube with the existence of new configuration of vortex generator using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation. Two types of swirl flow generator: Classical twisted tape (CTT) and Parabolic-cut twisted tape (PCT) with a different twist ratio (y= 2.93, 3.91 and 4.89) and different cut depth (w= 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 cm) with 2% and 4% volume concentration

Anumerical solutions is presented to investigate the effect of inclination angle (θ) , perforation ratio (m) and wall temperature of the plate (T_w) on the heat transfer in natural convection from isothermal square flat plate up surface heated (with and without concentrated hole). The flat plate with dimensions of (128 mm) length × (64 mm) width has been used five with square models of the flat plate that gave a rectangular perforation of (m=0.03, 0.06, 0.13, 0.25, 0.5). The values of angle of inclination were (0^o, 15^o 30^o 45^o 60^o) from horizontal position and the values of wall temperature (50^oC, 60 ^oC, 70 ^oC, 90 ^oC, 100^o<