Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The dangers of (Israel's) integration with Arab countries in the middle east region will threaten the Arab security structure dimension, which the latter makes the Arab regional system vulnerable for distortion due to its nominal and symbolic value which is far from the Arab self and questioning with its effectiveness in comparing with the real capabilities to Arab countries in achieving the common targets. So, how to assess the different problems that began to hit the structure of the Arab regional system? and how to pledge an allegiance after putting forward what is known as the American Deal of the Century for the administration of former US President Donald Trump for making another step toward normalization with (Israel)?. The reveal

لمعرفة مدى تأثير تمرينات مهارية وفق تقنية تركيز للتفكير الجاني على الدقة الحركة وتعلم هجمة الإيقاف  بالغطس للطلاب في سلاح الشيش استخدمت الباحثتان المنهج التجريبي على عينة من طلاب المرحلة الثالثة بكلية التربية البدنية وعلوم الرياضة –جامعة ديالى والتي بلغت (30) طالباً موزعين على مجموعتين التجريبية والضابطة وبعد إكمال اجراءات البحث وتطبيق الاختبارات القبلية وتنفيذ التمرينات والاختبار البعدي ومعالجة الب

The research aims to provide a method to measure the fair value of the most environmentally friendly of Iraq and through the application of method of measuring the fair value of the company garments contribute to mixed as the company is of the economic units of the industrial sector and included in the Iraqi market for securities as a profit and distributes profits to shareholders since the method of measurement of the fair value based on the divided profits as toxic in a deduction of Cash Dividends cash for measuring fair value, and will also be in this research to clarify the disclosure of accounting for fair value and choose the method of disclosure most appropriate to the beneficiaries of accounting disclosure, as will be cho

Dentures that are not cleaning and maintained properly may prone to contamination by different microbial pathogens that result in several oral conditions. This study was design to compare the antimicrobial effect of different denture cleansers oxalic, tartaric, citric acids and alkaline peroxide with microwave irradiation on the growth of Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus respectively. Microwave oven used to disinfect specimens of heat-activated acrylic resin and soft linear. Oxalic, citric, tartaric acids, and alkaline peroxide were also used. Microorganisms that tested were Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus separately. Treatment with microwave or tartaric acid could achieve sterilization of both hot cured acrylic resins

Leishmaniosis is a tropical neglected parasitic disease that is endemic in many countries, including Middle East, with no existing effective vaccines. The bite of female sand-fly transmits the causative agent, Leishmania spp., to humans. High toxicity, resistance and treatment failure of the available chemotherapy against visceral leishmaniosis demands the investigation of new anti-leishmanial compounds. Lupeol is a form of triterpene isolated from several medicinal plants and possesses an antimicrobial property. In this study, cytotoxic effect of lupeol was screened against the mammalian amastigotes form and insect promastigote form of Leishmania donovani, following three cycles of incubation at different concentrations by MTT assay. Resul

Background; Perforated duodenal ulcer (PDU) is a common surgical emergency that is associated with high mortality and morbidity. Early diagnosis and prompt surgical treatment is required to prevent grave complications.
Objective; The study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of different radiological investigations in the diagnosis of perforated duodenal ulcer.
Methods; A prospective study of 185 pts with PDU at al kindy teaching hospital, Baghdad, Iraq from June 2008- august 2010. patients were examined clinically and investigated by blood test, chest x ray, plain X ray of the abdomen. Ultrasonography (U/S) and CT scanning done for those patients with negative X- ray finding. Resuscitation by intravenous fluid and ant

In this research, the performance of electrocoagulation (EC) using aluminum (Al) electrodes with   Monopolar- parallel (MP-P), and bipolar - series (BP-S) arrangement for simultaneous removal of dissolved silica, and hardness ions (calcium, and magnesium) from synthetic blowdown water of cooling tower were investigated. The effects of current density, initial pH and time of electrolysis on the removal efficiency were studied in a batch stirred unit to find out the best-operating conditions. The obtained results for each target species are evidence that BP-S approach is the best for both electrodes configuration operated at a Current density of 1mA/cm² through 30 min of treatment and pH=10 with the removal of

Esterification reaction is most important reaction in biodiesel production. In this study, oleic acid was used as a suggested feedstock to study and simulate production of biodiesel. Batch esterification of oleic acid was carried out at operating conditions; temperature from 40 to 70 °C, ethanol to oleic acid molar ratio from 1/1 to 6/1, H2SO4 as the catalyst 1 and 5% wt of oleic acid, reaction time up to 180 min. The optimum conditions for the esterification reaction were molar ratio of ethanol/oleic acid 6/1, 5%wt H2SO4 relative to oleic acid, 70 °C, 90 min and conversion of oleic 0.92. The activation energy for the suggested model was 26625 J/mole for forward reaction and 42189 J/mole for equilibrium constant. The obtained results s