Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

research objectives to:
1. identify the social, economic and cultural factors affecting consumption.
2. detect the consumption culture among the population in the city of Erbil.
3. Identify the GATT consumer protection and rights.
The most important results:
1. that there is variation in the answers of respondents about keep up with modernity in the basic consumption (necessary), it swallowed the proportion of yes answers about keep up with modernity in food consumption (72%), and is an indication of growing consumer awareness of the individual in the side of nutrition. The clothing on the side of the proportion of yes answers amounted to (85%), in the health field note that the percentage of yes answers (83%), who are abr

SM ADAI, BN RASHID, Journal of Current Researches on Social Sciences, 2023

Characterized the Middle East has geographic, economic, and geostrategic peculiarities, but it suffers from many problems, such as disagreement over what it means as a concept, or what it represents of a geographic extension. The question is related to the ambiguity surrounding the concept of the Middle East? The purpose of its launch? As it relates to its geostrategic, economic, and geo-cultural importance? And manifestations of this importance? And to what extent he retained his value in the strategies of the major powers? Research hypotheses:

-The multiplicity of concepts for the Middle East region, with international political and Geostrategic interests.- The geostrategic value of the Middle East has made it a focal point for

Giving advice refers to an attempt by the speaker to express what the addressee should do in a particular situation or what is good for him/her. It is also a feature of making social relations and communications move smoothly and become stronger. The current study aims to investigate the strategies of the speech act of advice by old females and males for the younger generation in written signs. Comparison is made between old females and males regarding their pragmatic use of advice and the way they are manifested in expressing gender identity differences. The sample of the study consists of (30) written signs of advice divided equally between the two gender groups. Hinkel’s (1997) classification of the strategies for perceiving th

         The essence of the new work in the satellite TV channels is to provide news coverage of news that will inform the people of what is going on around them in order to increase their political, social, economic and cultural awareness and this drives them to take positions or certain behaviors on according to what the communicator in these channels wants. News and news reports are generally used as a psychological variable to influence public opinion and does not offer interestingness and information. Therefore, satellite TV channels have assumed special attention towards their correspondents desiring to achieve scoop in news coverage and to have the final word in reading events and install it

This research focuses on the contemporary geostrategic transformations that afflicted the countries of the Middle East, with a focus on the countries of the Arab East, after the collapse of the system of international relations, and the emergence of the unipolar system led by the United States of America. After the events of September 11 and the events that followed, especially the occupation of Iraq in 2003, the study area witnessed a group of geopolitical variables and the emergence of dangerous phenomena that threatened the state structure in the countries of the Middle East; the most notably are the phenomenon of terrorism, cross-border armed groups, sectarian polarization, the phenomenon of migration and the internal and the externa

Collapsible soil has a metastable structure that experiences a large reduction in volume or collapse when wetting. The characteristics of collapsible soil contribute to different problems for infrastructures constructed on its such as cracks and excessive settlement found in buildings, railways channels, bridges, and roads. This paper aims to provide an art review on collapse soil behavior all over the world, type of collapse soil, identification of collapse potential, and factors that affect collapsibility soil. As urban grow in several parts of the world, the collapsible soil will have more get to the water. As a result, there will be an increase in the number of wetting collapse problems, so it's very important to com

The biggest problem of structural materials for fusion reactor is the damage caused by the fusion product neutrons to the structural material. If this problem is overcomed, an important milestone will be left behind in fusion energy. One of the important problems of the structural material is that nuclei forming the structural material interacting with fusion neutrons are transmuted to stable or radioactive nuclei via (n, x) (x; alpha, proton, gamma etc.) reactions. In particular, the concentration of helium gas in the structural material increases through deuteron- tritium (D-T) and (n, α) reactions, and this increase significantly changes the microstructure and the properties of the structural materials. T