In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation)  structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of  these procedures and compare them using generated data.

The organizational structure of relations between states is among the main features that distinguished the twentieth century as the era of international organization, especially after the increase in the number of political units after World War II in which regionalism was crystallized as a phenomenon. It is not modern, as there are many blocs such as the European Union that have developed in it, the idea of ​​regional bloc is prominent, especially in Europe, as it emerged after a controversy revolved around what was called globalism in the face of Globalism vs. Regionalism. Regional, as the proponents of the global orientation saw the establishment of a global organization that includes all countries, as the best way to achieve inte

The current study aimed to reveal the role of the high school (boys) in the Governorate of Qurayyat (KSA) in promoting intellectual security of students, and whether there were differences in the estimates of the study sample due to the variables; the current position, academic qualification, teaching specialization and years of experience. This study was conducted by applying the analytical descriptive method, and used questionnaire as a tool for data collection. The survey consisted of (44) ite

We investigate mathematical models of the Hepatitis B and C viruses in the study, considering vaccination effects into account. By utilising fractional and ordinary differential equations, we prove the existence of equilibrium and the well-posedness of the solution. We prove worldwide stability with respect to the fundamental reproduction number. Our numerical techniques highlight the biological relevance and highlight the effect of fractional derivatives on temporal behaviour. We illustrate the relationships among susceptible, immunised, and infected populations in our epidemiological model. Using comprehensive numerical simulations, we analyse the effects of fractional derivatives and highlight solution behaviours. Subsequent investigatio

         Economic intelligence represents a modern field of knowledge that has been and is still the focus of many studies and research, including this research that deals with economic intelligence and its role in strengthening Iraqi national security - an analytical study. Economic development and economic development without security, and in a situation such as that of Iraq, which is still suffering from conflicts, conflicts and the effects of wars, as well as the unstable conditions in its regional environment, the directions of that relationship cannot be determined except through the availability of accurate information, indicators, full knowledge of reality and the pos

The current study aims to compare between the assessments of the Rush model’s parameters to the missing and completed data in various ways of processing the missing data. To achieve the aim of the present study, the researcher followed the following steps: preparing Philip Carter test for the spatial capacity which consists of (20) items on a group of (250) sixth scientific stage students in the directorates of Baghdad Education at Al–Rusafa (1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd) for the academic year (2018-2019). Then, the researcher relied on a single-parameter model to analyze the data. The researcher used Bilog-mg3 model to check the hypotheses, data and match them with the model. In addition

The current research aims to measure the level of entrepreneurial orientation and its dimensions (creativity, independence, proactivity, risk tolerance, and achievement) in the National Security Chancellery, as its importance and role in guiding senior leaders of the chancellery to make strategic decisions with high quality in various Iraqi concerns, more specifically the security aspect. The data was collected from 94 individuals (the research sample) from the research community (120) individuals at different administrative levels and intentionally where the questionnaire was adopted as a main tool for data collection and the primary data was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistical methods (arithmetic mean, standard dev

The current research aims to determine the intellectual security and the psychological resilience of Secondary school students and how these two variables are related to each other. The study also seeks the extent to which psychological resilience contributes to intellectual security

The research sample consisted of (420) students from the Secondary stage in the Directorate of Education of Baghdad / Rusafa III. Two scales were administered to the participants to collect the needed data. As for the analysis of data, Pearson correlation coefficient, T-test, and the Regression analysis were employed, the results revealed:

1. The members of the sample have an intellectual Security.
2. The members of the sample have

The research deals with a very important topic, which is social security viewed in the context of criminal protection for state security and the challenges it faces after a decisive change in the methods of war. The research also presents a different division of the generations of wars. We limit ourselves to four of them based on the change in the strategic war objectives and not just the means of committing them. This is because these means are not suitable for describing the real changes in the patterns of wars and the goals that it seeks to achieve. The research stresses the importance of putting the concept of state security in its correct framework, which is part of social security, so that the interest of the political system and the