The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The estimation of the amounts of Surface runoff resulting from rainfall in the water basins is of great importance in water resources management. The study area (Bahr Al-Najaf) is located on the western edge of the plateau and the southwestern part of the city center of Najaf, with an area of 2729.4 (km2). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) with ArcGIS software was used to simulate the runoff coming from the three main valleys (Kharr (A and B)), Shoaib Al-Rahimawi, and Maleh), that contribute the flow to the study area. The results of the model showed that the SWAT software was successfully simulating the flow conditions based on the coefficient of determination (R2), the Nash coefficient (NS
... Show MoreThe estimation of the regular regression model requires several assumptions to be satisfied such as "linearity". One problem occurs by partitioning the regression curve into two (or more) parts and then joining them by threshold point(s). This situation is regarded as a linearity violation of regression. Therefore, the multiphase regression model is received increasing attention as an alternative approach which describes the changing of the behavior of the phenomenon through threshold point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator "MLE" has been used in both model and threshold point estimations. However, MLE is not resistant against violations such as outliers' existence or in case of the heavy-tailed error distribution. The main goal of t
... Show MoreThe main role of infill drilling is either adding incremental reserves to the already existing one by intersecting newly undrained (virgin) regions or accelerating the production from currently depleted areas. Accelerating reserves from increasing drainage in tight formations can be beneficial considering the time value of money and the cost of additional wells. However, the maximum benefit can be realized when infill wells produce mostly incremental recoveries (recoveries from virgin formations). Therefore, the prediction of incremental and accelerated recovery is crucial in field development planning as it helps in the optimization of infill wells with the assurance of long-term economic sustainabi
This study is concerned with the recent changes that occurred in the last three years (2017-2019) in the marshes region in southern Iraq as a result of the changes in the global climate, the study included all the water bodies in the five governorates that are located in the southern regions of Iraq (Wasit, Maysan, Dhi-Qar, Qadisiyah and Basrah), which represent the marshes lands in Iraq. Scenes of the Landsat 8 satellite are used to create a mosaic to cover the five governorates within a time window with the slightest difference between the date of the scene capture, not to exceed 8 days. The results of calculating the changes in water areas were obtained using the classifier support vector machine, where high accuracy ratios were recorded
... Show MoreParticulate matter (PM) emitted from diesel engine exhaust have been measured in terms of mass, using
99.98 % pure ethanol blended directly, without additives, with conventional diesel fuel (gas – oil),to
get 10 % , 15 %, 20 % ethanol emulsions . The resulting PM collected has been compared with those
from straight diesel. The engine used is a stationary single cylinder, variable compression ratio Ricardo
E6/US. This engine is fully instrumented and could run as a compression or spark ignition.
Observations showed that particulate matter (PM) emissions decrease with increasing oxygenate
content in the fuel, with some increase of fuel consumption, which is due to the lower heating value of
ethanol. The reduction in
The Albian Carbonate-clastic succession in the present study is represented by the Mauddud and Nahr Umr formations were deposited during the Albian stage within the Wasia Group More than 200 thin sections of cores and cuttings in addition to well logs data for Nahr Umr and Mauddud formations from 4 boreholes within two oil fields (Ba-4, Ba-8, Ns-2 and Ns-4) were used to interpret the different associations facies as well as the facies architectures to describe the sedimentary framework of the basin and development the petrophysical properties. Seven major microfacies were diagnosed in the carbonate succession of the Mauddud Formation, while the Nar Umr Formation includes five lithofacies; their grain types characteristic and deposit
... Show MoreEach phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho
... Show Morepublishing has become a large space in the field of interactive education and modern pages have become dedicated to the service of the educational effort in this area as the research in this context of the urgent scientific necessities, especially as we consider in Iraq from the new countries in the exploitation of these new technologies and investment possibilities of the information network And the contents of different in the framework of so-called distance education Here lies the problem of research in the possibility of finding scientific solutions for the design of interactive inter active website for students of the preparatory stage in Iraq and to find out the scientific ways to find design The study, which included the problem of
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