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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq
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The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Future Prospects for the Natural Gas Industry in Iraq and Investment Opportunities
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Abstract

  Natural gas is characterized by features that made from it a fuel and a raw material for many industries. Deepening its position as a favorite fossil supplier between other types of fossil fuel is the efficiency, diversity of its uses, low costs and compatibility with the environment which leads to increasing of its uses then increased global demand. So, the natural gas must take its place as an important resource in Iraq and participate the oil in the economic development process of building and financing of the general budget.

  Iraq is planning to continue of increasing the export capacity of raw oil to meet ambitious production targets emanating from the mai

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees20
Theoretical estimation of the trapping reaction rate for deuteron-deuteron fusion in nickel metal using Bose-Einstein condensates phenomena
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A mathematical model has been introduced to investigate the effect of nuclear reaction constant ( A ), probability of the BEC ground state occupation Ω i, nD is the number density of deuteron (d) and the overall number of nuclei ND on the total nuclear d-d fusion rate (R). Under steady-state of the condensates of Bose-Einstein, the postulate of quantum theory and Bose-Einstein theory were applied to evaluate the total nuclear (d-d) fusion rate trapping in Nickel-metal The total nuclear fusion rate trapping predicts a strong relationship between astrophysical S-factor and masses of Nickel. The reaction rate trapping model was tested on three reaction d(d,p)T, d(d, n)3He and d(d, 4He)Q = 23.8MeV respectively. The reaction rate has described

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Naturally occurring radioactive materials and related hazard indices in Ahdeb oil field
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In this work, measurements of activity concentration of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) isotopes and their related hazard indices for several materials such as crude oil, sludge and water in Ahdeb oil fields in Waste governorate using high pure germanium coaxial detection technique. The average values for crude oil samples were174.72Bq/l, 43.46Bq/l, 355.07Bq/l, 264.21Bq/l, 122.52nGy/h, 0.7138, 1.1861, 0.601 mSv/y, 0.1503mSv/y and 1.8361 for Ra-226, Ac-228, K-40, Ra eq, D, H-external and H-internal respectively. According to the results; the ratio between 238U to 232Th was 4, which represents the natural ratio in the crust earth; therefore, one can be strongly suggested that the geo-stricture of the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 09 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Effect of Sodium sulfite treatment on the trypsin inhibitors activity, protein isolate and protein solubility of complete and dehulling white bean seeds Phaseolus vulgaris.: Effect of Sodium sulfite treatment on the trypsin inhibitors activity, protein isolate and protein solubility of complete and dehulling white bean seeds Phaseolus vulgaris.
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The study aimed to increase the biological value of white bean. The effect of different concentrations 0.01 ,0.02,0.03,and 0.04 M of sodium sulfite solutions for 1hr at 70 ºC on the trypsin inhibitors activity, protein isolate and protein solubility of complete and dehulling white bean flour were studied.Trypsin inhibitors activity were reduced by 42.97, 58.69, 68.59 and 69.58% in complete white bean flour at 0.01 ,0.02, 0.03, 0.04 M respectively, while the corresponding values were 50.43, 61.00, 75.61 and 85.66% respectively in dehulling white bean flour .Protein isolate value was 13.41% and protein solubility was 2.2% in control sample, Furthermore, the using of chemical treatment showed that protein isolate was reduced gradually and

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية
Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application
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Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application

Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship Analysis Between Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in Iraq For the Period 2015–2021
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This research aims to study and analyze the reality of monetary policy and financial sustainability in Iraq through either a descriptive or analytical approach by trying to link and coordinate between monetary policy and fiscal policy to enhance economic sustainability. The research is based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy of Iraq contributes to achieving financial stability, which improves economic sustainability by providing aid and assistance to the state to reduce the budget deficit and exacerbate indebtedness. The author used the monetary policy indicators, the re-deduction of Treasury transfers by the central bank and the money supply, and financial sustainability indicators, including the public debt indicators and the

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 25 2018
Journal Name
Oriental Journal Of Chemistry
Estimation of preptin in serum of Thyroid Dysfunction Patients and its Relationship with other Parameters
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The research includes a clinical study of Preptin with other parameters. The normal value of preptin in hypothyroidism (2638.4±280.0) in female while (2960.4±256.6) in male, in hyperthyroidism (589.0±90.1) in male, while in female (993.2±103.9), diabetes (2465.6±282.4) in female, in male (2085.5±282.8), in diabetes & hypothyroidism (3314.3±177.3) in male,(3179.4±265.7) in female, but control group in female (427.8±60.4), in male (384.7±62.4) at age (20-45) years they were divided into five groups: group one (G1) consisted of 30 hypothyroidism. The two group (G2) consisted of 30 patients with hyperthyroidism. And three group (G3) consisted of 30 healthy group, four group (G4) consisted of 30 patient with diabetes, and five group (G

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The estimation of the viable count of mutans streptococcus in waterpipe smokers and cigarette smokers
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Background: Waterpipe and cigarette are two products of tobacco consumption, tobacco use has detrimental effects on the oral cavity, numerous studies around the world have reported a significant relationship between smoking and increase dental caries and viable count of cariogenic bacteria, Materials and Methods: unstimulated saliva was collected from 84 subjects and divided equally into three groups waterpipe smokers, cigarette smokers, and non-smokers all of the participants are adult male aged between 25-60 years, dental caries was measured by use DMFT index, while S.mutans and S.sobrinus were isolated by using a selective medium SB 20M (Sugar bacitracin-20 modified) agar Results: this present study showed a significant (p≤0.01)

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analysis of Demand Function on Oil derivatives of A Selected countries the Period 1985- 2008
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The subject of demand on oil derivative has occupied an important position at present time in the daily life context. The fuel of benzene and gas oil and kerosene is one of basic elements of that concern, and on local , regional and international levels. The oil derivatives have played a leading role in determining the course and nature of development since early 1970 to the present time whether in the productive Arab countries or the importing. The researcher set out from the hypothesis that the increase of the local consumer demand on some of the oil derivatives is because of the internal and external factors accompanied by the inability of the productive capability and local production to confront this increase, and the resort

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archive
A new species of genus stachys L. (Lamiaceae) in Iraq
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