The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of operating variables on, the percentage of removed sludge (PSR) obtained during re-refining of 15W-40 Al-Durra spent lubricant by solvent extraction-flocculation treatment method. Binary solvents were used such as, Heavy Naphtha (H.N.): MEK (N:MEK), H.N. : n-Butanol (N:n-But), and H.N. : Iso-Butanol (N:Iso:But). The studied variables were mixing speed (300-900, rpm), mixing time (15-60, min), and operating temperature (2540, oC). This study showed that the studied operating variables have effects where, increasing the mixing time up to 45 min for H.N.: MEK, H.N.: n-Butanol and 30 min for H.N.: Iso-Butanol increased the PSR, after that percentage was decreased; increasing t
... Show MoreIn this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
... Show MoreThe deficit of the federal budget and the structural imbalances suffered by the Iraqi economy has affected the direction of research towards suggesting steps and mechanisms can be relied upon in the near term to form a broader base of non-oil revenues aimed at achieving a balanced budget, and to proceed to reform the financial situation, In reducing their financial dictates, whether capital or operational, which lead to significant financial and economic consequences. This also requires that the Iraqi political elite have the real will, strategic vision and full awareness that the implementation of these reforms has potential social and economic effects, with long-term measures to be taken. The aim is not only to reform the finan
... Show MoreLaurylamine hydrochloride CH3(CH2)11 NH3 – Cl has been chosen from cationic surfactants to produce secondary oil using lab. model shown in fig. (1). The relationship between interfacial tension and (temperature, salinity and solution concentration) have been studied as shown in fig. (2, 3, 4) respectively. The optimum values of these three variables are taken (those values that give the lowest interfacial tension). Saturation, permeability and porosity are measured in the lab. The primary oil recovery was displaced by water injection until no more oil can be obtained, then laurylamine chloride is injected as a secondary oil recovery. The total oil recovery is 96.6% or 88.8% of the residual oil has been recovered by this technique as shown
... Show MoreThe distribution of the intensity of the comet Ison C/2013 is studied by taking its histogram. This distribution reveals four distinct regions that related to the background, tail, coma and nucleus. One dimensional temperature distribution fitting is achieved by using two mathematical equations that related to the coordinate of the center of the comet. The quiver plot of the gradient of the comet shows very clearly that arrows headed towards the maximum intensity of the comet.
In the last two decades, networks had been changed according to the rapid changing in its requirements. The current Data Center Networks have large number of hosts (tens or thousands) with special needs of bandwidth as the cloud network and the multimedia content computing is increased. The conventional Data Center Networks (DCNs) are highlighted by the increased number of users and bandwidth requirements which in turn have many implementation limitations. The current networking devices with its control and forwarding planes coupling result in network architectures are not suitable for dynamic computing and storage needs. Software Defined networking (SDN) is introduced to change this notion of traditional networks by decoupling control and
... Show MoreBinary mixtures of three, heavy oil-stocks was subjected to density measurements at temperatures of 30, 35 and 40 °C. and precise data was acquired on the volumetric behavior of these systems. The results are reported in terms of equations for excess specific volumes of mixtures. The heavy oil-stocks used were of good varity, namely 40 stock, 60 stock, and 150 stock. The lightest one is 40 stock with °API gravity 33.69 while 60 stock is a middle type and 150 stock is a heavy one, with °API gravity 27.74 and 23.79 respectively. Temperatures in the range of 30-40 °C have a minor effect on excess volume of heavy oil-stock binary mixture thus, insignificant expansion or shrinkage is observed by increasing the temperature this effect beco
... Show MoreThe reserve estimation process is continuous during the life of the field due to risk and inaccuracy that are considered an endemic problem thereby must be studied. Furthermore, the truth and properly defined hydrocarbon content can be identified just only at the field depletion. As a result, reserve estimation challenge is a function of time and available data. Reserve estimation can be divided into five types: analogy, volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance and reservoir simulation, each of them differs from another to the kind of data required. The choice of the suitable and appropriate method relies on reservoir maturity, heterogeneity in the reservoir and data acquisition required. In this research, three types of rese
... Show MoreBackground: The aim of this study is to evaluate the color change ∆E of the dental enamel following treatment with 2 kinds of protector (icon infiltrant, clinpro varnish) before fixed orthodontic treatment to avoid the possible white spot lesions. Materials and Methods: Fifty four subjects treated with fixed appliances were divided into 3 groups: the 1st group was control, while the 2nd and 3rd groups were treated with icon infiltrant and clinpro varnish before bonding procedure, respectively. Color parameters (L,a,b) were recorded for the middle and gingival thirds before and after bonding procedure to get the ∆E of each group. Results: One-way ANOVA test showed a non-significant difference in ∆E between the 3 groups a
... Show MorePredicting vertical stress was indeed useful for controlling geomechanical issues since it allowed for the computation of pore pressure for the formation and the classification of fault regimes. This study provides an in-depth observation of vertical stress prediction utilizing numerous approaches using the Techlog 2015 software. Gardner's method results in incorrect vertical stress values with a problem that this method doesn't start from the surface and instead relies only on sound log data. Whereas the Amoco, Wendt non-acoustic, Traugott, average technique simply needed density log as input and used a straight line as the observed density, this was incorrect for vertical computing stress. The results of these methods
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