The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The present research deals with the spatial variance analysis in Jwartadistrict and conducting a comparison on the spatial and seasonal changes of the vegetation cover between (2007-2013) in order to deduce the relationship between the vegetation density and the areas which are exposed to the risk of water erosion by using Plant Variation Index NDVI) C (coefficient and by using Satellite images of Landsat satellite which are taken in 2/7/2007 and Satellite images of Landsat satellite taken in 11/1/ 2013, the programs of remote sensitivity and the Geographic Information Systems.
The study reveals that there is a variance in the density of vegetation cover of the area under study betwee 2007 and 2013. Howev
... Show MoreA sensitive spectrophotometric method was developed for the estimation of cefdinir (CFD), a cephalosporin species. This study involves two methods, and the first method includes the preparing of azo dye by the reaction of CFD diazonium salt with 4-Tert-Butylphenol (4-TBP) and 2-Naphthol (2-NPT) in alkaline medium, which shows colored dyes measured at λmax 490 and 535 nm, respectively. Beer's law was obeyed along the concentration range of (3-100) μg.ml-1. The limits of detection were 0.246, 0.447 μg.ml-1 and molar absorptivities were 0.6129×104, 0.3361×104 L.mol-1cm-1 for (CFD-4-TBP) and (CFD-2-NPT), respectively. The second method includes preconcentration for cefdinir dyes by using cloud point extraction in the presence of Triton
... Show MoreIn this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
... Show MoreThe distribution of the intensity of the comet Ison C/2013 is studied by taking its histogram. This distribution reveals four distinct regions that related to the background, tail, coma and nucleus. One dimensional temperature distribution fitting is achieved by using two mathematical equations that related to the coordinate of the center of the comet. The quiver plot of the gradient of the comet shows very clearly that arrows headed towards the maximum intensity of the comet.
Laurylamine hydrochloride CH3(CH2)11 NH3 – Cl has been chosen from cationic surfactants to produce secondary oil using lab. model shown in fig. (1). The relationship between interfacial tension and (temperature, salinity and solution concentration) have been studied as shown in fig. (2, 3, 4) respectively. The optimum values of these three variables are taken (those values that give the lowest interfacial tension). Saturation, permeability and porosity are measured in the lab. The primary oil recovery was displaced by water injection until no more oil can be obtained, then laurylamine chloride is injected as a secondary oil recovery. The total oil recovery is 96.6% or 88.8% of the residual oil has been recovered by this technique as shown
... Show MoreBinary mixtures of three, heavy oil-stocks was subjected to density measurements at temperatures of 30, 35 and 40 °C. and precise data was acquired on the volumetric behavior of these systems. The results are reported in terms of equations for excess specific volumes of mixtures. The heavy oil-stocks used were of good varity, namely 40 stock, 60 stock, and 150 stock. The lightest one is 40 stock with °API gravity 33.69 while 60 stock is a middle type and 150 stock is a heavy one, with °API gravity 27.74 and 23.79 respectively. Temperatures in the range of 30-40 °C have a minor effect on excess volume of heavy oil-stock binary mixture thus, insignificant expansion or shrinkage is observed by increasing the temperature this effect beco
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to investigate the effect of operating variables on, the percentage of removed sludge (PSR) obtained during re-refining of 15W-40 Al-Durra spent lubricant by solvent extraction-flocculation treatment method. Binary solvents were used such as, Heavy Naphtha (H.N.): MEK (N:MEK), H.N. : n-Butanol (N:n-But), and H.N. : Iso-Butanol (N:Iso:But). The studied variables were mixing speed (300-900, rpm), mixing time (15-60, min), and operating temperature (2540, oC). This study showed that the studied operating variables have effects where, increasing the mixing time up to 45 min for H.N.: MEK, H.N.: n-Butanol and 30 min for H.N.: Iso-Butanol increased the PSR, after that percentage was decreased; increasing t
... Show MoreIn the last two decades, networks had been changed according to the rapid changing in its requirements. The current Data Center Networks have large number of hosts (tens or thousands) with special needs of bandwidth as the cloud network and the multimedia content computing is increased. The conventional Data Center Networks (DCNs) are highlighted by the increased number of users and bandwidth requirements which in turn have many implementation limitations. The current networking devices with its control and forwarding planes coupling result in network architectures are not suitable for dynamic computing and storage needs. Software Defined networking (SDN) is introduced to change this notion of traditional networks by decoupling control and
... Show MoreThe special core analysis tests were accomplished on a set of core plugs for Mishrif Formation (mA, mB1, and mB2cde/mC units) in West Qurna/1 oilfield, southern Iraq. Oil relative permeability (Kro) data and the Corey-type fit of the data as functions of the brine saturation at the core outlet face for individual samples in the water-oil imbibition process to estimate relative permeability measurements by the centrifuge method were utilized. Identical correlations for oil and water relative permeabilities were extracted by steady-state and unsteady-state methods. For the mA samples, the gas-water capillary pressure curves were within a narrow range (almost identical) indicating that mA is a homogeneous unit. Kro curves for three mB2
... Show MoreThe special core analysis tests were accomplished on a set of core plugs for Mishrif Formation (mA, mB1, and mB2cde/mC units) in West Qurna/1 oilfield, southern Iraq. Oil relative permeability (Kro) data and the Corey-type fit of the data as functions of the brine saturation at the core outlet face for individual samples in the water-oil imbibition process to estimate relative permeability measurements by the centrifuge method were utilized. Identical correlations for oil and water relative permeabilities were extracted by steady-state and unsteady-state methods. For the mA samples, the gas-water capillary pressure curves were within a narrow range (almost identical) indicating that mA is a homogeneous unit. Kro curves for thr
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