The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Characterization of the heterogonous reservoir is complex representation and evaluation of petrophysical properties and application of the relationships between porosity-permeability within the framework of hydraulic flow units is used to estimate permeability in un-cored wells. Techniques of flow unit or hydraulic flow unit (HFU) divided the reservoir into zones laterally and vertically which can be managed and control fluid flow within flow unit and considerably is entirely different with other flow units through reservoir. Each flow unit can be distinguished by applying the relationships of flow zone indicator (FZI) method. Supporting the relationship between porosity and permeability by using flow zone indictor is ca
... Show MoreThe hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s
... Show MoreThe Compressional-wave (Vp) data are useful for reservoir exploration, drilling operations, stimulation, hydraulic fracturing employment, and development plans for a specific reservoir. Due to the different nature and behavior of the influencing parameters, more complex nonlinearity exists for Vp modeling purposes. In this study, a statistical relationship between compressional wave velocity and petrophysical parameters was developed from wireline log data for Jeribe formation in Fauqi oil field south Est Iraq, which is studied using single and multiple linear regressions. The model concentrated on predicting compressional wave velocity from petrophysical parameters and any pair of shear waves velocity, porosity, density, a
... Show MoreIraq is located near the northern tip of the Arabian plate, which is advancing northwards relative to the Eurasian plate, and is predictably, a tectonically active country. Seismic activity in Iraq increased significantly during the last decade. So structural and geotechnical engineers have been giving increasing attention to the design of buildings for earthquake resistance. Dynamic properties play a vital role in the design of structures subjected to seismic load. The main objective of this study is to prepare a data base for the dynamic properties of different soils in seismic active zones in Iraq using the results of cross hole and down hole tests. From the data base collected it has been observed that the average ve
... Show MoreThe work presented in this paper is a case study of the southeastern Iraqi Fauqi Oil Field to evaluate both the petrophysical properties and lithology of the Jeribe–Euphrates Formations. Reservoir characterization was performed using well log data, including Gamma Ray (GR), Density (RHOB), Neutron (NPHI), Sonic (DT), Spontaneous Potential (SP), and resistivity logs. Data processing, correction, and interpretation were conducted using Interactive Petrophysics (IP) software. The Gamma Ray method was used to estimate shale volume (Vsh), while porosity was calculated using various methods, with the neutron–density combination providing reliable results. To determine water saturation (Sw), the Archie equation was applied using common
... Show MorePermeability data has major importance work that should be handled in all reservoir simulation studies. The importance of permeability data increases in mature oil and gas fields due to its sensitivity for the requirements of some specific improved recoveries. However, the industry has a huge source of data of air permeability measurements against little number of liquid permeability values. This is due to the relatively high cost of special core analysis.
The current study suggests a correlation to convert air permeability data that are conventionally measured during laboratory core analysis into liquid permeability. This correlation introduces a feasible estimation in cases of data loose and poorly consolidated formations, or in cas
Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.
Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t
... Show MoreEstimation of mechanical and physical rock properties is an essential issue in applications related to reservoir geomechanics. Carbonate rocks have complex depositional environments and digenetic processes which alter the rock mechanical properties to varying degrees even at a small distance. This study has been conducted on seventeen core plug samples that have been taken from different formations of carbonate reservoirs in the Fauqi oil field (Jeribe, Khasib, and Mishrif formations). While the rock mechanical and petrophysical properties have been measured in the laboratory including the unconfined compressive strength, Young's modulus, bulk density, porosity, compressional and shear -waves, well logs have been used to do a compar
... Show MoreGenerally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the
... Show MoreThe Compressional-wave (Vp) data are useful for reservoir exploration, drilling operations, stimulation, hydraulic fracturing employment, and development plans for a specific reservoir. Due to the different nature and behavior of the influencing parameters, more complex nonlinearity exists for Vp modeling purposes. In this study, a statistical relationship between compressional wave velocity and petrophysical parameters was developed from wireline log data for Jeribe formation in Fauqi oil field south Est Iraq, which is studied using single and multiple linear regressions. The model concentrated on predicting compressional wave velocity from petrophysical parameters and any pair of shear waves velocity, porosity, density, and
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