The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this study the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) received by pediatrics patients undergoing chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examinations was estimated. The study was conducted in two hospitals in Najaf city where three radiographic systems were considered. The study participants were classified into four age groups 0-1 , 1-5 , 5-10 and 10-15 years. Calculations were performed using exposure factors, kVp, mAs and focal-skin distance, together with patient data age. The ESD was calculated for the involved patients who underwent an Antero-posterior (AP) chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examination. The resulted data were analyzed and compared with international dose references. For all studied radiographic examinations and all X-ray mac
... Show MoreZiziphora persica Bunge is recorded as a new Study in Iraq. This species has been collected from Jabal Sinjar in Nineveh province in the north western part of Iraq. The morphological characters, habitat and geographical distribution of the species with a key to Ziziphora L. species in Iraq have been provided.
Agricultural companies could push investment forward and help in production base variation and developing production techniques. They also play a significant role in organizing and providing requirements of market economy. This work aimed at studying economic efficiency of the six agricultural companies that are registered at Iraqi stock market for the period 2005-2016. Capital of these companies was between (300 million-7.5 billion IQD). Several financial analysis indicators were applied such as activity percentages. Average of capital circulation was 0.91 for private company of agricultural production، and lowest share was for Iraqi company for producing and marketing field crops. Assets average circulation was highest for the pr
... Show MoreEpilepsy is the most common neurological disorder after Alzheimer and other cerebrovascular diseases. Antiepileptic drugs (AED's) are one of the most important methods to prevent epileptic seizers. Antiepileptic drugs can cause damage to the liver which is the largest and most important glandular organ in the body with many other drugs. Carbamazepine (CBZ) is a known anticonvulsant that is widely used and known for a decade, it was used to treat trigeminal neuralgia, bipolar disorder and epilepsy and it can cause hepatotoxicity. In this study female white mice received CBZ suspension at a dose of 20 mg/kg/mouse via gastric gavage for 30 days, tissue samples were collected for scanning electron microscopy. We observed the adverse effects of
... Show MoreReconstruction of female identity is one of the important issues in modern times. The majority of the females who descent from the countries of the third world confront lots of problems because of their race and gender. Black females or colored skin females because of the oppression of the white society upon them, try hard to cope with society in order to get some relief and feel that they are part of this cruel white society. One of the solutions for these black females is to reconstruct their identity by mimicry to the English beauty standards. Zadie Smith is a postcolonial author. She deals with third- world women and how they are treated in a minority and in a racist way. She strives to empower the subaltern black females who ha
... Show MoreThree hundred Iraqi people participated in demographic and attitudes study about red and white meat consumption. The mean age of the participants was 50 SD ± 11 years (mean 30-72); 51% were females and 49% males, mostly in forties who lived ≥ 5 years in Baghdad. The results showed that 80% of individuals prefer red meat. A 90% of people prefer fresh meat compared to frozen and processed meat. A 60% of people buy meat from popular markets. Nearly 87% of respondents believe the improving of livestock sector is essential and 80% of people confirmed there are obstacles to development this sector. An 80% of participates thought the reasons of the high prices of local fresh meat is the lack of planning and support to livestock sector. A survey
... Show MoreThe research mainly seeks to predict the amounts of non- oil Iraqi exports which concludes ) Food & Animals , Raw materials and non- tanned Leather and fur , Mineral fuels and Lubricating Oil , Chemical substances and amounts , Manufactured goods , Electrical and non - electrical machines , Supplies and Total non- Oil exports ) by using Markov Chain as one of Statistical approach to forecasting in future . In this search We estimate the transliteration probabilities matrix according to Maximum Likelihood on a data collected from central organization for Statistics and information technology represents an index numbers of non- Oil exports amount in Iraq from 2004 to 2015 depending on 2007 as a basic year . Results shown that trend of index
... Show MoreConstructing a fine 3D geomodel for complex giant reservoir is a crucial task for hydrocarbon volume assessment and guiding for optimal development. The case under study is Mishrif reservoir of Halfaya oil field, which is an Iraqi giant carbonate reservoir. Mishrif mainly consists of limestone rocks which belong to Late Cenomanian age. The average gross thickness of formation is about 400m. In this paper, a high-resolution 3D geological model has been built using Petrel software that can be utilized as input for dynamic simulation. The model is constructed based on geological, geophysical, pertophysical and engineering data from about 60 available wells to characterize the structural, stratigraphic, and properties distri
... Show MoreIn this paper, point estimation for parameter ? of Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution has been investigated by using simulation technique, to estimate the parameter by two sections methods; the first section includes Non-Bayesian estimation methods, such as (Maximum Likelihood estimator method, and Moment estimator method), while the second section includes standard Bayesian estimation method, using two different priors (Inverse Chi-Square and Jeffrey) such as (standard Bayes estimator, and Bayes estimator based on Jeffrey's prior). Comparisons among these methods were made by employing mean square error measure. Simulation technique for different sample sizes has been used to compare between these methods.