The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Al Huweizah Marsh is considered as the largest marsh at the southern part of Iraq. About one third of the marsh is located within the Iranian territory. Iran began to construct earth dikes along the Iraqi-Iranian international borders to separate the Iranian part of the marsh. The electrical conductivity, EC, value was adopted to be the indicator for the water salinity within the marsh. A steady two-dimensional water quality routing model was implemented by using the RMA2 and RMA4 softwares within the SMS computer package to estimate the distribution of the
EC values within the marsh seasonally during the wet, moderate and dry water years. The EC distribution Patterns were estimated considering the expected two cases of the marsh futu
A New developed technique to estimate the necessary six elastic constants of homogeneous laminate of special orthotropic properties are presented in this paper for the first time. The new approach utilizes the elasto-static deflection behavior of composite cantilever beam employing the famous theory of Timoshenko. Three extracted strips of the composite plate are tested for measuring the bending deflection at two locations. Each strip is associated to a preferred principal axis and the deflection is measured in two orthogonal planes of the beam domain. A total of five trails of testing is accomplished and the numerical results of the stiffness coefficients are evaluated correctly under the contribution of the macromechanic
... Show MoreWater quality assessment offers a scientific basis for water resource development and management. This research aims to assessment of Al-Rustamiya sewage treatment plant depending on annually changes and produces maps that declare changes on parameter during a period (2015-2018). Based on prior Government Department Baghdad Environment data which annually feature changes for samples from Northern Rustamiya have been estimated as a working model. Drawn a map of the Diyala River shows annual changes in the characteristics of the Diyala River, based on northern and southern Rustamiya effluent samples, and Diyala River samples. The characteristics that research focused on were biochemical
ABSTRACT
The research aims to know the reality of a two examined variables at the organization studied identifying the relationship between managerial processes reengineering and organizational citizenship behavior. The research applied on the Electronic Manufacturing Company encompassing a sample of managers and employees consisted of (100) individuals. A questionnaire is the main instrument for data gathering, which has been included (45) questions as well as personal interviews to support the questionnaire's questions and to achieve greater realism for collecting information.
Answers were analyzed to reach the final results through the use of a number of statistical methods via
... Show MoreA computational investigation is carried out in the field of charged –particle optics with the aid of numerical analysis method using the personal computer. The work is concerned with the design of electron gun with space-charge effect. The Finite element method (FEM) used in the solution of Poison's equation for determine the axial potential distribution of the two-electrode immersion lens operated under zero magnification condition , and from the solution of the paraxial ray equation the optical properties such as the focal length , spherical and chromatic aberration coefficients are determined, also a calculation of the brightness and perveance for the lens. The electrodes geometry was determined in two and three dimensi
... Show MoreThis paper deals with two preys and stage-structured predator model with anti-predator behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the appearance of local and Hopf bifurcation of the system have been achieved, and it’s observed that near the free predator, the free second prey and the free first prey equilibrium points there are transcritical or pitchfork and no saddle node. While near the coexistence equilibrium point there is transcritical, pitchfork and saddle node bifurcation. For the Hopf bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point have been studied. Further, numerical analysis has been used to validate the main results.
The CuInSe2 (CIS) nanocrystals are synthesized by arrested precipitation from molecular precursors are added to a hot solvent with organic cap- ping ligands to control nanocrystal formation and growth. CIS thin films deposited onto glass substrate by spray - coating, then selenized in Ar- atmosphere to form CIS thin films. PVs were made with power conversion efficiencies of 0.631% as -deposited and 0.846% after selenization, for Mo coated, under AM 1.5 illumination. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) analysis it is evident that CIS have the chalcopyrite structure as the major phase with a preferred orientation along (112) direction and the atomic ratio of Cu : In : Se in the nanocrystals is nearly 1 : 1 : 2
Nanotechnology is a continually expanding field for its uses and applications in multiple areas i.e. medicine, science, and engineering. Biosynthesis is straightforward, less-toxicity, and cost-effective technology. TiO2 NPs biosynthesis has attained consideration in recent decades. In this study, probiotic bacteria were isolated from cow’s raw milk samples, and then were identified by using the Vitek2 system; as Leuconostoc spp. included Leuconostoc mesenteroides subsp. mesenteroides (Leu.1), Leuconostoc mesenteroides subsp. cremoris (Leu.4), and Leuconostoc pseudomesenteroides (Leu.14). All Leuconostoc spp. isolates showed an ability for TiO2 NPs bio-production, after being incubated at anaerobic conditions (30 o C/ 24 h) in DeM
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