The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This Action research aimed at Assisting Students of Faculty of Educational Sciences at Al-Quds Open University to design computerized lessons using the Power Point software and according to ADDIE model. The study sample consisted of 40 students who were taking a course titled Technology of Education during the second semester of the 2014-2015 academic year and three academic instructors . To collect the required date , the researchers used focus group technique and structured interviews to get information from the 40 students and the three academic instructors involved in the course Technology of Education in QOU /Nablus Branch. In addition to these methods, a workshop with a guiding checklist was employed t
... Show MoreIn this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best estimator is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).
The objective of this research work is to evaluate the quality of central concrete plant of Al-Rasheed Company by using Six Sigma approach which is a measure of quality that strives for near elimination of defects using the statistical methods to improve outputs that are critical to customers. The fundamental objective of Six Sigma methodology is the implementation of a measurement-based strategy that focuses on process improvement and variation reduction to reach delighting customers, and then suggesting an improvement system to improve the production of concrete in Al-Rasheed State Contracting Construction Company.
A field survey includes two parts (open and close questionnaire) that aimed to get the data and information required f
This research presents a method of using MATLAB in analyzing a nonhomogeneous soil (Gibson-type) by
estimating the displacements and stresses under the strip footing during applied incremental loading
sequences. This paper presents a two-dimensional finite element method. In this method, the soil is divided into a number of triangle elements. A model soil (Gibson-type) with linearly increasing modulus of elasticity with depth is presented. The influences of modulus of elasticity, incremental loading, width of footing, and depth of footing are considered in this paper. The results are compared with authors' conclusions of previous studies.
This paper describes the transport of Alkaloids through Rotating Discs Contactor (RDC) using n-decane as a liquid membrane. The transport of Pelletierine Alkaloid from a source phase through bulk liquid membrane to the receiving phase has been investigated. The general behaviour of Pertraction process indicates that% Extraction of pelletierine Alkaloid increased with increase in the number of stages and the agitation speed but high agitation speed was not favoured due to the increased risk of droplet formation during the operation. The pH of source and receiving phases were also investigated. The effect of organic solvent membrane on the extraction of Pelletierine was evaluated using ndecane, n-hexane and methyl cyclohexane. The results sho
... Show MoreThe purpose of this study is to demonstrate a simple high sensitivity vapor sensor for propanol ((CH3)2CHOH). A free space gap was employed in two arms of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer to serve as the sensing mechanism by adding propanol volume (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1) ml and to set the phase reference with a physical spacing of (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) mm. The propagation constant of transmitted light in the Mach-Zehnder interferometer’s gap changes due to the small variation in the refractive index inside sensing arm that will further shift the optical phase of the signal. Experimental results indicated that the highest sensitivity of propanol was about 0.0275 nm/ml in different liquid volume while highest phase shift was 0.182×103 i
... Show MoreGlass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) beams have gained attention due to their promising mechanical properties and potential for structural applications. Combining GFRP core and encasing materials creates a composite beam with superior mechanical properties. This paper describes the testing encased GFRP beams as composite Reinforced Concrete (RC) beams under low-velocity impact load. Theoretical analysis was used with practical results to simulate the tested beams' behavior and predict the generated energies during the impact loading. The impact response was investigated using repeated drops of 42.5 kg falling mass from various heights. An analysis was performed using accelerometer readings to calculate the generalized inertial load. The in
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