The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This work included synthesis of several new polymers of polyacryloyl chloride in two steps . The first step the included the reaction of N-( sub. or un sub. benzoyl and sub. or un sub. acetyl ) amidyl sub. 2,6- diamino -4-methyl-1,3,5-triazine (1-5) by condensation of many substituted acid chlorides with 2,6- diamino -4-methyl-1,3,5-triazine . While the second step included the reaction of polyacryloyl chloride with the produced compounds (1-5) in step (1) in the presence amount triethyl amine (Et3N) to obtain new polyimides (6-10). The prepared compounds were characterized by UV. , FT-IR, and some of them by 1H-NMR and 13C- NMR spectroscopy.
Antimicrobial and antiyeast activity of ethanolic and aqueous extract of grape fruit seed (Citrus paradise ; Rutaceaa) was examined against 10 bacterial and 2 yeast strains. The level of the antimicrobial effects was established using an in vitro agar assay and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). In general ethanolic extract were more effective on gram positive bacteria than gram negative bacteria and strongest antimicrobial effect against Streptococcus pyogenes and Salmonella entritidis. Other tested bacteria and yeasts were sensitive to extract ranging from 4 to 16 mg/ml and more.
The effectiveness inhibitory to extract alcohol for the leaf and flower to plant sage Salvia pratensis each of Staphylococcus aureus, streptococcus epidermidis, Salmonella typhi, Pseudomonas aeroginosa, Escherichia coli, Aspergillus niger and Candida albicans whom had any inhibition to aqueous extracts of the parts itself species bacterial and fungal. The study also demonstrated that the extract of plant containing compounds chemical such as tannins, Alkaloids, Flavonoieds, and saponins, which owns effectiveness of medical. The MIC, MBC and inhibition zones for crud extract were determinated for microbial agents.
The interlaminar fracture toughness of polymer blends reinforced by glass fiber has
been investigated. Epoxy (EP), unsaturated polyester(UPE), polystyrene (PS),
polyurethane (PU) and their blends with different ratios (10%PS/90%EP),
(20%PS/80%EP), (20%PU/80%EP) and (20%PU/80%UPE) were chosen as a matrices A
sheet of composites were prepared using hand lay -up method, these sheet were cut as the
double cantilever beam (DCB) specimen to determine interlaminar fracture toughness of
these composites .Its found that, blending of EP,UPE with 20% of PU will improve the
interlaminar fracture toughness ,but the adding of 10% PS, 20%PS to EP will decrease
the interlaminar toughness of these composites.
Abstract
The Phenomenon of Extremism of Values (Maximum or Rare Value) an important phenomenon is the use of two techniques of sampling techniques to deal with this Extremism: the technique of the peak sample and the maximum annual sampling technique (AM) (Extreme values, Gumbel) for sample (AM) and (general Pareto, exponential) distribution of the POT sample. The cross-entropy algorithm was applied in two of its methods to the first estimate using the statistical order and the second using the statistical order and likelihood ratio. The third method is proposed by the researcher. The MSE comparison coefficient of the estimated parameters and the probability density function for each of the distributions were
... Show MoreBanking reforms in many countries have focused on the efficiency enhance of the banking sector, including Iraq, in terms of indicative steps based on recommendations, policies and standards developed by international organizations, foremost of which are Basel III. In this paper, it has tried to highlight the reforms in Basel III and the impact of these reforms on the stability of the banking system in Iraq. As the research derives its importance from the idea that the sound banking system consists of a group of banks capable of employing their assets and obligations efficiently in financial intermediation and enjoying financial solvency. The stability of the banking system is an important factor in achieving the leading role of t
... Show MoreBackground: It may be an important prospective clinical use of manufacturing of porous implant for clinical situations, such as cases of limitation in bone height, low bone density .The small segment of porous implant an effective osseointegration allows increasing in contact area provided for small segmented porous provided by its surface configuration. This study was done to Fabricate porous titanium implants by powder technology, as well as the observation of removal torque values of porous titanium implants compared to smooth titanium implants. Materials and methods: Twenty porous titanium implants (3.2mm in diameter and 8mm in length) were manufactured by powder technology using commercially pure titanium powder of ≤75um part
... Show MoreThis research presents an experimental investigation of the rehabilitation efficiency of the damaged hybrid reinforced concrete beams with openings in the shear region. The study investigates the difference in retrofitting ability of hybrid beams compared to traditional beams and the effect of two openings compared with one opening equalized to two holes in the area. Five RC beams classified into two groups, A and B, were primarily tested to full-failure under two-point loads. The first group (A) contained beams with normal weight concrete. The second group (hybrid) included beams with lightweight concrete for web and bottom flange, whereas the top flange was made from normal concrete. Two types of openings were considered in this s
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