The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The importance of research is to be considered by highlighting the tax policy in Iraq which extended for successive measurement of the amount of tax receipts for respective periods, the research problem represents security, economic and political issues that Iraq suffered which were very difficult since Nineties of the last century until now that led to a lake of clarity in tax policy trends, volatility in it and finally reflected on the tax revenues increase or decrease. One of the main recommendations of the research is: (The necessity to develop a deliberate strategy for tax policy in Iraq which should take into account financial, economic, and social goals in appropriate way).
Education around the world has been negatively affected by the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Many institutions had to transition to distance learning in compliance with the enforced safety measures. Distance learning might work well for settings with stable internet connections, professional technical teams, and basic implementation of technology in education. In contrast, distance learning faces serious challenges in less fortunate settings with inferior infrastructure. This report aims to shed light on the immediate action steps taken at a leading pharmacy school in Iraq to accommodate for the enforced changes in pharmacy education. The University of Baghdad College of Pharmacy went from less than minimal technology impl
... Show MoreAn epidemiological study in Al-Mahmmodiya (50 km south Baghdad) to investigate a possible vector of Leishmaniasis were applied .This region is considered as a foci of Leishmaniasisaccording to the health association statistics. CDC light traps were used to collect the insects nightly. Insects were collected by Indoor application as human dwellings and animal shelters and Outdoor application as rodent's barrows and field trees. Sand flies were transported to the laboratory, isolated and identified according to the identification keys in Tropical Biological Researches Unit at the Collage of Science / University of Baghdad. Must of the collected sand flies were belonging to three species PhlebotomuspapatasiScopoli(45%), PhlebotomusalexandriSin
... Show MoreHusain as a king of Iraq.
This paper deals with the British communication with faisel . then Winston Churchill's speech in British common house .then fodlowed by arriving faisal to Iraq after that the referend um faisel .
The his claims of British maneuver lastly coronation on faisal & his inauguration as a king of Iraq.
The study aimed to survey mushroom species from fields among herbs, palm trunks, and trees in central Iraq and to identify them on the basis of morphological and molecular characteristics. As a molecular identification result with polymerase chain reaction six species were recorded (with eight isolates): Agaricus bitorquis (Quéllt) Saccardo. 1887 (SHA14); Candolleomyces candolleanus (Fr.) D. Wächter & Melzer, 2020 (SHA15); Cyclocybe cylindracea (D.C.) Vizzini & Angelini, 2014 (SHA13); Leucoagaricus hesperius Vellinga, 2010 (SHA16); Volvariella sp. (SHA17), and Volvopluteus gloiocephalus (D. C.) Vizzini, Contu & Justo, 2011 (SHA10, SHA101 and SHA12), belonging to four families of Basidiomycetes: Agaricaceae, Pluteaceae,
... Show MoreDe-waxing of lubricating oil distillate (400-500 ºC) by using urea was investigated in the present study. Lubricating oil distillate produced by vacuum distillation and refined by furfural extraction was taken from Al-Daura refinery. This oil distillate has a pour point of 34 ºC. Two solvents were used to dilute the oil distillate, these are methyl isobutyl ketone and methylene chloride. The operating conditions of the urea adduct formation with n-paraffins in the presence of methyl isobutyl ketone were studied in details, these are solvent to oil volume ratio within the range of 0 to 2, mixer speed 0 to 2000 rpm, urea to wax weight ratio 0 to 6.3, time of adduction 0 to 71 min and temperature 30-70 ºC). Pour point of de-waxed oil and yi
... Show MoreReservoir study has been developed in order to get a full interesting of the Nahr Umr formation in Ratawi oil field. Oil in place has been calculated for Nahr Umr which was 2981.37 MM BBL. Several runs have been performed to get matching between measured and calculated of oil production data and well test pressure. In order to get the optimum performance of Nahr Umr many strategies have been proposed in this study where vertical and horizontal wells were involved in addition to different production rates. The reservoir was first assumed to be developed with vertical wells only using production rate of (80000–125000) STB/day. The reservoir is also proposed to produce using horizontal wells besides vertical wells with production rat
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