The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The growing demand for sustainable and high-performance asphalt binders has prompted the exploration of waste-derived modifiers. This study investigates the performance enhancement of Natural Asphalt (NA) using Sugarcane Molasses (SM) and Waste Engine Oil (WEO). The modified blends were prepared by partially replacing 50 % NA with varying proportions of SM and WEO ranging from 10 % to 40 % of the total weight of NA. Comprehensive testing was conducted, including penetration, softening point, ductility, viscosity, Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR), Multiple Stress Creep Recovery (MSCR), Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDX), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The results demonstrated that
... Show MoreThe analysis of Iraqi light oil (light naphtha) by capillary gas chromatography- mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was performed by the injection of whole naphtha sample without use of solvents. Qualitative analysis and the identification of the hydrocarbon constituents of light naphtha was performed and comparison had been done with American light oil (light naphtha). The obtained results showed a major difference between the two-light naphtha.
This study was conducted according to contract with the North Refineries Company-Baiji and deals with the hydrodesulphurization of vacuum gas oil of Kirkuk crude oil, boiling range 611-833 K. A trickle bed reactor packed with a commercial cobalt-molybdenum on alumina catalyst was used. The operating conditions were: temperature range 583-643 K, liquid hourly space velocity range 1.50-3.75 1/h, hydrogen to oil ratio about 250 l/l and pressure kept constant at 3.5MPa.
The results showed that the aromatic content decreased and sulfur removal increased with increasing temperature and decreasing space velocity. The properties (viscosity, density, flash point and carbon residue) of the products decrease with temperature increasing, but the
As the major role of oil sector in financing and development of Iraqi economy this study tried to research on the factors which influencing the future of oil production in Iraq and for that study addressed the hypothesis (the production and export of crude oil in Iraq , influenced by many factors divided into internal and external factors this factors shared the effect varies in the size of their participation and runs from different sectors economic , political and social , in order to test the study hypothesis study addressed the subject of three axes(an overview of the history and facts of crude oil production in Iraq and factors internal Affecting the future of oil production in Iraq and external factors affecting the future
... Show MoreBuzurgan oil field suffers from the phenomenon of asphaltene precipitation. The serious negatives of this phenomenon are the decrease in production caused by clogging of the pores and decrease in permeability and wettability of the reservoir rocks, in addition to the blockages that occur in the pipeline transporting crude oil. The presence of laboratories in the Iraqi oil companies helped to conduct the necessary experiments, such as gas chromatography (GC) test to identify the components of crude oil and the percentages of each component, These laboratory results consider the main elements in deriving a new equation called modified colloidal instability index (MCII) equation based on a well-known global equation called colloidal instabi
... Show MoreBuzurgan oil field suffers from the phenomenon of asphaltene precipitation. The serious negatives of this phenomenon are the decrease in production caused by clogging of the pores and decrease in permeability and wettability of the reservoir rocks, in addition to the blockages that occur in the pipeline transporting crude oil. The presence of laboratories in the Iraqi oil companies helped to conduct the necessary experiments, such as gas chromatography (GC) test to identify the components of crude oil and the percentages of each component, These laboratory results consider the main elements in deriving a new equation called modified colloidal instability index (MCII) equation based on a well-known global equation called colloidal in
... Show MoreBackground: Toxoplasmosis is a very common infection caused by the obligate intracellular protozoan parasite. This parasite is called Toxoplasma gondii widely distributed around the world . Toxoplasma gondii can be vertically transmitted to the fetus during pregnancy and may cause wide range of clinical manifestations in the offspring.
Objective: To determine seroprevalence Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and Immunoglobulin M (IgM ) to toxoplasma gondii among pregnant women and to identify the risk factors.
Type of the study: A cross-sectional study.
Methods: A total of 110 blood samples of pregnant women were collected from
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