The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Leishmaniasis is caused by certain intracellular Leishmania species and is common in the tropics, where it exhibits a wide range of clinical manifestations. Both cellular and humoral immunological responses play crucial roles in disease progression. This study identified the fundamental role of B lymphocytes during the progression of leishmaniasis in human hosts. A cross-sectional study of patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from different parts of Iraq was conducted, and their respective serum IgE levels were measured before any treatment was administered. Sandwich ELISA was used for quantitative measurement of IgE in CL, VL, and control subjects. The results revealed a higher level of IgE con
... Show MoreThe present research has investigated the effect of microwave energy on improving the flow properties of heavy crude oil. The fragmentation of crude oil molecules was carried out with and without using 1 and 10 wt. % concentration of various types of H-donors like tetralin, cyclohexane, and naphtha. Microwave power of 320, 385, and 540 W and radiation time 1-9 min, and temperature were studied. The kinematic viscosity and asphaltene content were measured for evaluation the improving of heavy crude oil. Results show that viscosity of crude oil decreased with increase H-donor concentration, a maximum percentage of viscosity reduction was10.63 % for tetralin at 6 min radiation time, while 8.67%, and 7.34% for cyclohexane a
... Show MoreThe depletion of petroleum reserves and increasing environmental concerns have driven the development of eco-friendly asphalt binders. This research investigates the performance of natural asphalt (NA) modified with waste engine oil (WEO) as a sustainable alternative to conventional petroleum asphalt (PA). The study examines NA modified with 10%, 20%, and 30% WEO by the weight of asphalt to identify an optimal blend ratio that enhances the binder’s flexibility and workability while maintaining high-temperature stability. Comprehensive testing was conducted, including penetration, softening point, viscosity, ductility, multiple stress creep recovery (MSCR), linear amplitude sweep (LAS), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), F
... Show MoreA many risk challenge in (settings hospital) are multi- bacteria are antibiotic-resistant. Some type strains that ability adhesion surface-attached bio-film census. Fifteen MRSA isolates were considered as high biofilm producers Moreover all MRSA isolates; M3, M5, M7 and M11 produced biofilms but the thickest biofilm seen M7strain. The MIC values of N. sativa oil against clinical isolates of MRSA were between (0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0) μg/ml While MRSAcin (50, 75, 100, 125) µg\ ml. All biofilms treated with MRSAcin and Nigella sativa developed a presence of live cells after cultured on plate agar with inhibition zone between MIC (18 – 15) and (14- 11)mm respectively.Yet, results showed that MRSA supernatant developed a inhibitory ef
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is analysis the effect of the changes in (GDA, g, inflation) at average and standard economic curriculum in composition of the models, depending on SPSS program in analysis, and according to available date from central bank of Iraq and during the period from 2003 to 2018 and by using OLS and estimate of the equation and the results showed a statistical significance relation in incorporeal level 5% and the R2 value equal to 92.1 refer to the changes in independent variables explain 92% of changes of unemployment and the independent variables effect are very limit depend on estimated parameters in the model and respectively (0.986,0.229,-0.060), the research recommended necessity to active the inve
... Show MoreMental disorders (MDs) are a common problem in Primary Health Care Centers (PHCCs). Many people with serious MDs are challenged by symptoms and disabilities that result from the disease and by stereotypes and prejudice due to misconceptions about mental illness. This study aims at evaluating the knowledge, and attitude toward mental health concepts and services and causes of the reluctance to seek those services among people attending PHCCs. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted. The random sampling technique was used to include (10) of Directorates of Health (DoHs) coverage north, middle, and south of Iraq. The study was executed in (50) selected PHCs, (5) PHCCs in each DoH involved randomly selected (30) people attending th
... Show MoreA cut-off low is a closed low with a low value of geopotential height at the upper atmospheric levels that has been fully detached (cut-off) from the westerly flow and move independently. A cut-off low causes extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes regions. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the cut-off low at 500 hPa over Iraq from a synoptic point of view and the behavior of geopotential height at 500 hPa. To examine the association of the cut-off low at 500 hPa with rainfall events across Iraq, two case studies of heavy rainfall events from different times were conducted. The results showed that the cut-off low at 500 hPa with a low value of geopotential height will strengthen the low-pressure system at the surface, lea
... Show MoreThe moon tree, the lover of the night, cholera, the sea changes its colors are poetic products left by the pioneer of free poetry, as many have called her. She used to write poetry and publish it in magazines and newspapers until she published it with collections that came into existence from an early age. Several factors helped her in that that contributed to the formation of her personality and the maturity of her talent, including factors Family, including environmental, and psychological, until she later became the focus of attention of many, so she became taught in the universities of London, and students stood by her method of writing free poetry, this poetic color that Badr Shaker Al-Sayyab participated in pioneering. Whoever exam
... Show More500 samples of diarrhea stool were collected from different ages(less than 1year –upto30years) and for both genders from some patients in (Alwiya hospital for children, Al-kendi, central health public laboratory and some gavernarated labs) period(1/11/2009—1/10/2010). Kinds of bacteria and parasites agents were isolated and identified from patients with diarrhea. Nine species of gram negative bacteria from enterobacteriaceae were isolated, E. coli isolated are the higher ratio 4.8% of all, then Salmonella typhi4.6% while the lowest ratios is Citrobacterfreundii 0.4%, while the other identified species were be among the previous rotios. also Plesomonasshigelloides was isolated which concedride one of the bacterial local studies.many met
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