The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The research article deals with the process of building or rebuilding the state in Iraq after 2003 in its various dimensions, in light of the vision and foundational procedures that were developed and supervised by the United States in cooperation with the new leaders of Iraq based on the mechanism of sectarianethnic representation, and diagnosing the imbalances that arose out of that vision and the accompanying procedures, which led to the emergence of new variables in the political process, especially in the post-ISIS* phase, which produced important challenges to the political system and the Iraqi state. The political dynamics and balances emerging after ISIS* represented at the same time opportunities and risks in the process of
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Anemia during pregnancy is still a challenge throughout the world, and it may cause severe health consequences in the maternal and fetal sides. AIM: This study aims to find out the prevalence of maternal anemia and potential adverse outcomes in Iraq. METHODS: In Medical City Tertiary Center in Baghdad, singleton pregnant ladies came for delivery were involved over 6 months’ period. Based on hemoglobin (Hb) readings; they were divided into no anemia group (Hb>11 g/l) and anemia group which were further subdivided into mild, moderate, and severe (Hb =10–10.9, =7.1–9.9, and <7 g/l, respectively). Full history and examination were performed by attending obstetrician and pediatrician for the upcoming babies. RE
... Show MoreIraq is considered one of the countries most susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change. According to international reports, it is classified as among the top five most affected by climate change in the world, leading to economic resource shortages and an increase in water scarcity, which exposes societal stability in Iraq to a threat. This may result in social disintegration and civil conflicts, so climate changes are considered one of the most dangerous crises affecting societal stability in Iraq during this stage. In this context, the research attempts to trace the causes of climate change and their effects on societal stability in Iraq and suggest some necessary measures to confront them in the future. The resea
... Show MorePrediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bay
... Show MoreHuman posture estimation is a crucial topic in the computer vision field and has become a hotspot for research in many human behaviors related work. Human pose estimation can be understood as the human key point recognition and connection problem. The paper presents an optimized symmetric spatial transformation network designed to connect with single-person pose estimation network to propose high-quality human target frames from inaccurate human bounding boxes, and introduces parametric pose non-maximal suppression to eliminate redundant pose estimation, and applies an elimination rule to eliminate similar pose to obtain unique human pose estimation results. The exploratory outcomes demonstrate the way that the proposed technique can pre
... Show MoreThe international reporting auditor witness rapidly developed over the past years, where profession began give attention to the development of auditor reporting and improve its informational report through the issuance and amendment of some relevant international auditing standards. The reality of the situation refers to the failure to inform the auditor in Iraq in many areas, including: Clearly defined management responsibility for the preparation of financial and auditor's responsibility to express an opinion on these statements and Amendment of opinion when the financial statements as a whole is free from material misstatement based on the evidence is sufficient and appropriate audit, or not to build the auditor's ability to obt
... Show Moreالاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر في العراق ودوره في تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية
Abstract: This research aims to investigate and analyze the most pressing issues facing the Iraqi economy, namely economic stability and inclusive growth Consequently, the present study investigates the effect of inflation and unemployment, which are significant contributors to economic instability, on inclusive growth dimensions such as GDP, education, health, governance, poverty, income inequality, and environmental performance. From 1991 to 2021, secondary data were collected using World Bank Indicators (WDI) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) databases. The researchers also employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to determine the relationship between variables. The study revealed that fluct
... Show MoreIn this paper, an attempt was made to measure and interpret the impact of several variables on global maritime transport, including: OECD industrial productions, high growth rates of some developing countries, and growth in world GDP. These variables contribute to higher rates of maritime transport revenues of 800 billion dollars annually; in the form of numerical sequences. The dry canal in Iraq was assumed to transfer 99 million tons of goods annually. This was made sure through the economic feasibility of the difference between maritime and land transport through railways. The effect of geographical and anthropological nature of Iraq on this project was studied too. Our findings indicated that the project will not drive growth
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