The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract- Asymptomatic or clinically silent kidney stones are possibly serious because, in their expected passage, they may cause infection, obstruction and renal impairment. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of silent kidney stones in a sample of Baghdad population and consider how this value could affect the justification for a screening system. To our best knowledge, this is the first study of its kind conducted in Iraq. We investigated 714 consecutive patients who sustained an abdominal ultrasound at our hospital with further kidney screening. All these patients did not have clinical signs and symptoms of nephrolithiasis. Age, sex, the indication for ultrasound, the size, side, and the number of the disco
... Show MoreHerbal remedies are used in induction of lactation. In view of that .Borage Officinalis was employed to ensure an abundant milk supply or rectify milk insufficiency .However, this remedy has not been scientifically tested .The animals were treated with the aqueous extract of Borage Officinalis flowers at a daily concentration of 100 mg / kg body weight /ml for each rat through Oro-gastric tube for 14 days. Animals were subdivided into subgroups according to their physiological status. Mammary glands of these animals were processed for histological, histochemical and immunohistochemical studies. Parameters indicated that the aqueous extract of Borage Officinalis flowers induced lactogenesis in the mammmary glands of virgin and pregnant rats
... Show MoreThis study aims to study some morphological and reproductional characteristics in eleven species of two genera belonging to the family of Asparagaceae, which are Bellevalia Lapeyrouse, 1808 and Ornithogalum Linnaeus, 1753 and the species are: Bellevalia chrisii Yildirim and Sahin, 2014; Bellevalia flexuosa Boissier, 1854; Bellevalia kurdistanica Feinbrun, 1940; Bellevalia longipes Post, 1895; Bellevalia macrobotrys Boissier, 1853; Bellevalia paradoxa Boissier, 1882; Bellevalia parva Wendelbo, 1973; Bellevalia saviczii Woronow, 1927; Ornithogalum brachystachys C. Koch, 1849; Ornithogalum neurostegium Boissier, 1882 and Ornithogalum pyrenaicum Linnaeus, 1753. These species were identified and compared with each other; the results showed th
... Show MoreFlow-production systems whose pieces are connected in a row may not have maintenance scheduling procedures fixed because problems occur at different times (electricity plants, cement plants, water desalination plants). Contemporary software and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are used to fulfill the research objectives by developing a predictive maintenance program. The data of the fifth thermal unit of the power station for the electricity of Al Dora/Baghdad are used in this study. Three stages of research were conducted. First, missing data without temporal sequences were processed. The data were filled using time series hour after hour and the times were filled as system working hours, making the volume of the data relativel
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The effect of physical and mental health on the feelings of personal welfare are known as health-related quality of life. Infection with hepatitis B virus is a major global health problem. Health-related quality of life was emerged as an important consideration in the care of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. The aim of the current study was to measure health-related quality of life among a sample of chronic hepatitis B patients in AL-Najaf city/Iraq. The current study was cross-sectional study carried out on (104) already diagnosed chronic viral hepatitis B patients who attended the Gastroenterology and Hepatology Center/Al-Sader Medical City/Najaf during November 2018 to May
... Show MoreThis work was conducted to study the extraction of eucalyptus oil from natural plants (Eucalyptus camaldulensis leaves) using water distillation method by Clevenger apparatus. The effects of main operating parameters were studied: time to reach equilibrium, temperature (70 to100°C), solvent to solid ratio (4:1 to 8:1 (v/w)), agitation speed (0 to 900 rpm), and particle size (0.5 to 2.5 cm) of the fresh leaves, to find the best processing conditions for achieving maximum oil yield. The results showed that the agitation speed of 900 rpm, temperature 100° C, with solvent to solid ratio 5:1 (v/w) of particle size 0.5 cm for 160 minute give the highest percentage of oil (46.25 wt.%). The extracted oil was examined by HPLC.
The study aimed to analyze the relationship between the internal public debt and the public budget deficit in Iraq during the period 2010–2020 using descriptive and analytical approaches to the data of the financial phenomenon. Furthermore, to track the development of public debt and the percentage of its contribution to the public budget of Iraq during the study period. The study showed that the origin of the debt with its benefits consumes a large proportion of oil revenues through what is deducted from these revenues to pay the principal debt with interest, which hinders the development process in the country. It has been shownthat although there was a surplus in some years of study, it was not
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