The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
هذا البحث يتحدى الافتراض القائل أن العراق بعد عام 2003 يجب دراسته بمعزل عن ديناميات التي سبقت عام 2003، اذ تبرهن هذه الدراسة على ان الشعبوية هي احدى الديناميات التي تمظهرت بصورة شعبوية استبدادية في النظام الديكتاتوري، نظرًا لأنه كان زعيم حزب علماني وعربي على نطاق واسع، لكنه استخدم الدين والقومية بشكل استراتيجي وانتقائي في ظروف معينة، مما خلق سياق الشعبوية الحديثة. الموجة الثانية هي الشعبوية العرقية والطائف
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The research aims at the relationship between Servant leadership dimensions test as an independent variable and an organizational trust as a variable dependent. Thus it was necessary to answer the following question: Is there a correlation relationship and impact between Servant leadership dimensions and organizational trust? To investigate the contents of the answer, the researcher selected a group of employees in Oil Products Distribution Company / Baghdad. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach in completing his research which dealt with a random sample of (190) individuals representing the research society out of the total number of (376) person from the middle and high Leaders. Depending
... Show MoreAmebiasis, related to the pathogenic parasite Entamoeba histolytica, is a prominent cause of diarrhea globally. Amebiasis is primarily a disease of impoverished communities in developing nations, although it has recently arisen as a significant infection among returning tourists and immigrants. Severe cases are linked to a high case fatality rate. Although polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based diagnosis is becoming more widely available, it is still underutilized. Treatment with nitroimidazoles is now suggested, however novel parasite medication research is a top priority. To avoid problems, amebiasis should be considered before corticosteroid therapy. Because there is no effective vaccination, sanitation and availability to clean w
... Show MoreAmebiasis, related to the pathogenic parasite Entamoeba histolytica, is a prominent cause of diarrhea globally. Amebiasis is primarily a disease of impoverished communities in developing nations, although it has recently arisen as a significant infection among returning tourists and immigrants. Severe cases are linked to a high case fatality rate. Although polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based diagnosis is becoming more widely available, it is still underutilized. Treatment with nitroimidazoles is now suggested, however novel parasite medication research is a top priority. To avoid problems, amebiasis should be considered before corticosteroid therapy. Because there is no effective vaccination, sanitation and availability to clean w
... Show MoreThis research is considered a simple attempt and effort which is it first and last target is to point at the procedures of the taxes account that aims to reduce the taxes from the persons and give free to the person who estimates the tax to practice what comes from the competent authorities to describe the person who estimates the tax and not an accountant who practice the accountant procedures which are imposed on him by the annual terms from higher administrations , So he can not evaluate state of the person who pay the tax , and he might be dissatisfied with his job , because his role can’t be activated from the general foundation taxes.
And so , this research includes four fields:-
... Show MoreBackground:No previous Iraqi study was done on the estimation of post mortem interval (PMI) from the medico-legal point of view; depending on the biochemical changes of vitreous humor.Objectives:To find out the relationship between some biochemical changes in vitreous humor and post mortem interval.To find out a new formula for estimation of PMI from some biochemical changes in vitreous humor.Method:The study was conducted on one hundred twenty two cases referred to the medico-legal institute in Sulaimani province during the period between 1st of February and 30th of July 2012.Complete classical autopsy was performed for each case and vitreous humor was collected at autopsy from the posterior chamber of the eye and the samples after coll
... Show MoreBackground: Age determination of skeletal remains is apart of many medico-legal as well as anthropological examination. Many anatomical structures have been studied, but the teeth and their measurements seem to be the most reliable method since teeth represent the most durable and resilient part of the skeleton. This study was undertaken for estimating the chronological age among Iraqi adult subjects based on various morphological variables of canine teeth using digital panoramic radiograph. Material and methods: The sample in the current study consisted of 240 Iraqi patients attending to the dental radiological clinic at College of dentistry/ Babylon University taking panoramic radiographs for different diagnostic purposes, the study samp
... Show MoreRock type identification is very important task in Reservoir characterization in order to constrict robust reservoir models. There are several approaches have been introduced to define the rock type in reservoirs and each approach should relate the geological and petrophysical properties, such that each rock type is proportional to a unique hydraulic flow unit. A hydraulic flow unit is a reservoir zone that is laterally and vertically has similar flow and bedding characteristics. According to effect of rock type in reservoir performance, many empirical and statistical approaches introduced. In this paper Cluster Analysis technique is used to identify the rock groups in tertiary reservoir for Khabaz oil field by analyses variation o
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Agricultural production, food security and safety, public health animal welfare, access to markets and alleviation of rural poverty have been achieved by controlling on veterinary services to prevent animal disease. World organization for animal health guidelines focus on controlling of animal disease which depends on good governance and veterinary services quality. The aim of veterinary services is controlling and preventing animal disease some of other aspects; it's responsibility of early detection, rapid response to outbreaks of emerging or re-emerging animal disease, optimizing quality and effectiveness of disease
... Show MoreTo verify the influence of magnetic flux on the characteristics of SAE 10W-30 gasoline engine oil when the engine oil is exposed to different magnetic fluxes 0, 6, 9, and 13 Volt. The following oil characteristics were measured: viscosity at 40 and 100 °C, and total acid number (TAN) mg KOH/g. The research was carried out in a completely randomized design with three replications for each treatment under the 5% probability level to compare the means of the treatments. The results of the experiment showed that there were significant differences in the studied properties when the engine oil was exposed to the above magnetic fluxes and, inversely, especially the magnetic flux of 13 Volt, which led to a decrease in the viscosity of the oils at
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