The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Geotechnical characterization of the sites has been investigated with the collection of borehole data from different sources. Using the data, grain size distribution curves have been developed to understand the particle size distribution of the alluvium present. These curves were further used for preliminary assessment of liquefiable areas. From geotechnical characterization, it has been observed that the soil profile in the two sites is dominated by sand and silty sand.Seed and Idriss (1971) approachhas been usedevaluatethe liquefaction potentialbydeterminationof the relation between the maximum ground acceleration (a max/g) valuesdue to an earthquake and the relative density of a sand deposit in the field. The results reveal that
... Show MoreIndicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments ability to repay the other hand.
Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments inability to repay the ma
... Show MoreThere is no doubt that Agricultural Policy is the main responsible for the degrading in Agricultural sector in Iraq during the period 2003-2013, and that was very clear from magnitude of indicators because of little sharing of each of agricultural product in GDP because it was (9.38%) in average during the study period and the annual changing of it was negative (-5.82%), and there is increasing in deficit of trade balance in Agriculture during the study period about (4185.73) million US$, and the percentage of agricultural exports from total exports was (0.14%) in average only. The foreign trade policy in Agricultural products also cannot determine map of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of Agricultural products and crops. The study sh
... Show MoreIn the last two decades, arid and semi-arid regions of China suffered rapid changes in the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) due to increasing demand on food, resulting from growing population. In the process of this study, we established the land use/cover classification in addition to remote sensing characteristics. This was done by analysis of the dynamics of (LUCC) in Zhengzhou area for the period 1988-2006. Interpretation of a laminar extraction technique was implied in the identification of typical attributes of land use/cover types. A prominent result of the study indicates a gradual development in urbanization giving a gradual reduction in crop field area, due to the progressive economy in Zhengzhou. The results also reflect degradati
... Show MoreAmongst the literary writers who used their art to direct the attention towards the issue of woman and her rights in a proper life is the English poet and novelist Thomas Hardy (1840-1928), who has been praised for his “openness to the feminine principle” 1 as Irving Howe put it. Hardy’s wide readings have changed his way of dealing with and thinking about so many critical issues which started to float on the surface of the English society during the mid and late of the 19th century. His readings for a number of writers, who seem of huge impact on his writings as he later admits that – “[his] pages show harmony of view with
... Show MoreChemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi
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In this study, optical fibers were designed and implemented as a chemical sensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) to estimate the age of the oil used in electrical transformers. The study depends on the refractive indices of the oil. The sensor was created by embedding the center portion of the optical fiber in a resin block, followed by polishing, and tapering to create the optical fiber sensor. The tapering time was 50 min. The multi-mode optical fiber was coated with 60 nm thickness gold metal. The deposition length was 4 cm. The sensor's resonance wavelength was 415 nm. The primary sensor parameters were calculated, including sensitivity (6.25), signal-to-noise ratio (2.38), figure of merit (4.88), and accuracy (3.2)
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