The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
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The Iraqi government seeks to overcome the financial crisis by investing and privatizing some projects to achieve sustainable growth. Most of the investment projects in Iraq suffer from many constraints that greatly impact the success of these projects. A survey of the opinions of a group of experts was conducted to identify the most important constraints facing the investment process in Iraq. Then the experts' answers were arranged in a closed questionnaire and distributed to the research sample for which the statistical analysis was conducted. Through it, the most important (17) factors that had the greatest impact on the failure of investment projects in Iraq were reached. One of the main constraints was
... Show MoreA study of taxonomic quality of soil algae was conducted with some environmental variables in three sites of local gardens (Kadhimiya, Adhamiya and Dora) within the governorate of Baghdad for the period from October 2016 to March 2017. The study identified 28 species belonging to 16 species in which the predominance of blue green algae (18 species) Followed by Bacillarophyta algae (7 species) and three types of Chlorophyta. The study showed an increase in species of Oscillatoria. The results showed no significant differences between sites in temperature, pH and relative humidity, while there were clear differences between sites for salinity and nutrient The study showed a difference of irrigation water quality and use of different fertilize
... Show MoreEstimation of the names and verbs of some letters to consider the grammatical industry
The aim of this study is to highlight this species of gastropoda Cochlicellabarbara( Linnaeus, 1758), which is recorded for the first time in Iraq, which is an exotic animal in this country. It is a terrestrial Molluscan, the study for three months (February, March and April) 2017. In garden houses in Baghdad Al-Karkh, we studied the development stages from the egg to the adult, they lay a hundred of eggs in about (15-20) eggs in each gelatinous sac, the shell with 7 whorls and about 10 mm in length.
Sustainable human development means meeting the basic needs of society and striving for continuous improvement in quality, as it seeks to increase economic well-being while providing adequate housing and nutrition, as well as providing electricity, water, health and education services . Ten centuries ago, Islam highlighted the importance of the development effort and the necessity of its sustainability before the West took it in the 1970s. There are a number of challenges that greatly affect the reality of achieving and ensuring Millennium Development Goals. The research recommends the importance of fighting administrative and financial corruption, as this is one of the biggest challenges facing the possibility of advancing the economy and
... Show MoreRepresenting banking supervision An important function performed by the Iraqi Central Bank, in order to achieve stability in the financial and banking system, and safeguard the rights of depositors, investors and other targets, and to realize the Iraqi Central Bank banking supervision actors on banks, there must be an awareness of regulatory bank's existing control and subject them, as well as the role of banking oversight interested in spreading this awareness.
So sought search to find out the role played by the Iraqi Central Bank in raising awareness of the regulatory banking between the parties to the regulatory process, through the presentation and analysis of the legal framework for banking supervision and awareness supervisory