The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Research Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of
The stress(Y) – strength(X) model reliability Bayesian estimation which defines life of a component with strength X and stress Y (the component fails if and only if at any time the applied stress is greater than its strength) has been studied, then the reliability; R=P(Y<X), can be considered as a measure of the component performance. In this paper, a Bayesian analysis has been considered for R when the two variables X and Y are independent Weibull random variables with common parameter α in order to study the effect of each of the two different scale parameters β and λ; respectively, using three different [weighted, quadratic and entropy] loss functions under two different prior functions [Gamma and extension of Jeffery
... Show MoreIntegrated project delivery is collaboratively applying the skills and knowledge of all participants to optimize the project's results, increase owner value, decrease waste, and maximize efficiency during the design, fabrication, and construction processes. This study aims to determine IPD criteria positively impacting value engineering. To do this, the study has considered 9 main criteria according to PMP classification that already covers all project phases and 183 sub-criteria obtained from theoretical study and expert interviews (fieldwork). In this study, the SPSS (V26) program was used to analyze the main criteria and sub-criteria priorities from top to bottom according to their values of the Relative Importance In
... Show MorePompe disease is a progressive, multisystemic, debilitating, often fatal neuromuscular disease caused by a pathogenic variant in the acid α-glucosidase gene leading to GAA enzyme deficiency and lysosomal glycogen accumulation. Objectives: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of early onset Pompe disease in Basra, using the dried blood spot (DBS) as a screening tool, also to determine the spectrum of presentation. Materials and Methods: In a prospective study conducted in Basrah, Iraq, from October 2021 to September 2023, all infants with a family member diagnosed as a case of Pompe disease, hypotonia, or ventricular hypertrophy referred to the pediatric cardiology unit in Basra Cardiac Hospital were subjected to echocardiographic e
... Show MoreIraq, home of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, has survived an extreme deficiency of surface water assets over the years. The gap is due to the decline of the Iraqi water share every year, as well as a high demand for water use from different sectors, particularly agriculture.
Dam development has long given significant economic benefits to Iraq in circulating low‐priced electricity and supporting low‐income farmers by supplying them with a free irrigation system (Zakaria et al, 2012). This encouraged domestic consumption and investment.
Despite the fact that numerous advantages are expected from dam construction, it should be painstakingly assessed, utilizing cost
Iraqi insurance market need to develop products and to find new insurance policies to cover the damages of the violence and political commotions dangers and to meet the needs of the proposers.
The global insurance companies recently issued such policies to pay the losses wich caused by the violent political acts of vandalism suffered by the property and investments wich estimated billions of dollars.
... Show MoreBackground: Prevention against nosocomial infection is an important issue of health care field and considered a challenge of patients’ since it reflects its effect on their quality of life. This due to that it will lead in most cases to prolonged hospitalization and also more cost.Objective: To determine the prevalence of different types of nosocomial infection and to demonstrate the association of different risk factors (hospital environment, workers, visitors) with nosocomial infection.Patients: this study was carried out in eleven months at Ba’quba general Hospital; Iraq. A total of 81 clinical specimens (urine, pus from abscess , burn swab, nasal swab, ear swab and wound swab) taken from surgical patients,102 specimens from
... Show MoreThis study focused on benthic algae (epipelic and attached algae on concrete lining stream) in Bani-Hassan stream in Holly Karbala, Iraq. The qualitative and quantitative studies of benthic algae were done by collecting 240 samples from five sites in the study area for the period from December 2012 to November 2013. Also, the environmental variables of the stream were examined in term of temporary and spatial. The results showed that the stream was alkaline, hard, oligohaline and a well aerated. The total nitrogen to the total phosphorus (TN: TP) ratio indicates nitrogen limitation. 129 species of benthic algae belonging to 57 genera were identified. Bacillariophyceae (diatoms) was the predominant taxon (95 species) followed by Chlorophyce
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