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DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME-VARYING ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS FOR DIALYSIS PATIENTS IN BASRAH, IRAQ

Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2008
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Exfoliative Cytological Changes in Peritoneal Fluid from Patients on Peritoneal Dialysis

Background: Ambulatory peritoneal dialysis
introduced by Popvich et al (13) in 1978 , consists of a
four to five hours lavage of peritoneal cavity with 2000
ml of glucose solution .It remains a useful method for
treating patients with end stage renal failure till renal
transplantation becomes possible.
Objectives: The aim of the study is to evaluate the
value of cytological changes of mesothelial cells in
dialysate patients.
Methods: Within one year period, 32 cytological
peritoneal fluid samples were collected from patients
with end stage renal failure regardless of the underlying
causes, admitted to the dialyzing unit in Kadimya
Teaching Hospital. Smears were prepared and fixed in
95 % ethyl al

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
List of Scorpions Recorded For the First Time in Iraq

 The present study is the first taxonomic study on scorpions in Iraq. The specimens were collected from regions in the middle and south of Iraq, three families, seven genera and eight  species were recorded for the first time in Iraq and one new species of the world. 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Free Vibration Analysis for Dynamic Stiffness Degradation of Cracked Cantilever Plate

 

In the present work a dynamic analysis technique have been developed to investigate and characterize the quantity of elastic module degradation of cracked cantilever plates due to presence of a defect such as surface of internal crack under free vibration. A new generalized technique represents the first step in developing a health monitoring system, the effects of such defects on the modal frequencies has been the main key quantifying the elasticity modulii due to presence any type of un-visible defect. In this paper the finite element method has been used to determine the free vibration characteristics for cracked cantilever plate (internal flaws), this present work achieved by different position of crack. Stiffness re

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 15 2024
Journal Name
Obstetrics & Gynaecology Forum
THE ROLE OF FUNGAL INFECTIONS IN THE PATHOGENESIS OF DIALYSIS-DEPENDENT AND NON-DIALYSIS-DEPENDENT PATIENTS WITH KIDNEY DISEASE

Abstract The results of isolation, morphological and microscopic diagnosis, Chromic Agar, Vitik technology and Bact Alert showed that the diagnosis of fungi isolated from blood samples of end-stage renal patients who did not undergo dialysis and those who underwent dialysis was 60 samples for each type. The total number of fungal isolates isolated from people who did not undergo dialysis was 26 pathogenic fungal isolates, with a percentage frequency of 43.33%. In this study, 4 genera of pathogenic fungi were identified: Candida spp, Rhodotorula spp, Cryptococcus spp. and Aspergillus spp. The number of Candida isolates reached 13 isolates, with a frequency of 50%. The results also showed that the diagnosed species from the genus Rhodotorula

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Publication Date
Mon May 20 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Modeling Dynamic Background based on Linear Equation

     Detection moving car in front view is difficult operation because of the dynamic background due to the movement of moving car and the complex environment that surround the car, to solve that, this paper proposed new method based on linear equation to determine the region of interest by building more effective background model to deal with dynamic background scenes. This method exploited the permitted region between cars according to traffic law to determine the region (road) that in front the moving car which the moving cars move on. The experimental results show that the proposed method can define the region that represents the lane in front of moving car successfully with precision over 94%and detection rate 86

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 25 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
On Estimating the Survival Function for the Patients Suffer from the Lung Cancer Disease

          In this paper, the survival function has been estimated for the patients with lung cancer using different parametric estimation methods depending on sample for completing real data which explain the period of survival for patients who were ill with the lung cancer based on the diagnosis of disease or the entire of patients in a hospital for a time of two years (starting with 2012 to the end of 2013). Comparisons between the mentioned estimation methods has been performed using statistical indicator mean squares error, concluding that the estimation of the survival function for the lung cancer by using pre-test singles stage shrinkage estimator method was the best   . <

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Basilic Vein Mobilization for Brachio-Basilic Arterio-Venous Fistula in Dialysis

Background: The first and second choice for vascular access in patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) is radio cephalic and brachio cephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF).In patients with failed previous AVF e or poorly visualized or impalpable cephalic veins, the basilic vein can be mobilized and superficialized to create an AVF with the brachial artery.Objective: The aim of this study is to report our experience at the Vascular Surgery Department/ Surgical Specialty Hospital in brachio-basilic (BB) vascular access for hemodialysis.Methods: From January 2006 to December 2009, 31 patients with ESRD whose cephalic veins were thrombosed or impalpable or had previous unsuccessful vascular access procedures were referred to the Vascular

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)

 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Estimation and Analysis of the Cobb-Duglas Production Function for the Rail Transport Sector in Iraq for the Period 1990-2016 using the ARDL Model)

Abstract:

Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.

It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Stability testing of time series data for CT Large industrial establishments in Iraq

Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of ​​cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.

Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t

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