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DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME-VARYING ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS FOR DIALYSIS PATIENTS IN BASRAH, IRAQ
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Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Free Vibration Analysis for Dynamic Stiffness Degradation of Cracked Cantilever Plate
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In the present work a dynamic analysis technique have been developed to investigate and characterize the quantity of elastic module degradation of cracked cantilever plates due to presence of a defect such as surface of internal crack under free vibration. A new generalized technique represents the first step in developing a health monitoring system, the effects of such defects on the modal frequencies has been the main key quantifying the elasticity modulii due to presence any type of un-visible defect. In this paper the finite element method has been used to determine the free vibration characteristics for cracked cantilever plate (internal flaws), this present work achieved by different position of crack. Stiffness re

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Basilic Vein Mobilization for Brachio-Basilic Arterio-Venous Fistula in Dialysis
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Background: The first and second choice for vascular access in patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) is radio cephalic and brachio cephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF).In patients with failed previous AVF e or poorly visualized or impalpable cephalic veins, the basilic vein can be mobilized and superficialized to create an AVF with the brachial artery.Objective: The aim of this study is to report our experience at the Vascular Surgery Department/ Surgical Specialty Hospital in brachio-basilic (BB) vascular access for hemodialysis.Methods: From January 2006 to December 2009, 31 patients with ESRD whose cephalic veins were thrombosed or impalpable or had previous unsuccessful vascular access procedures were referred to the Vascular

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 31 2025
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Petroleum Hydrodynamic of Oilfields in Basrah, Southern Iraq
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Hydrodynamics is the interpretation of subsurface fluids and pressures to explain and predict hydrocarbon occurrence and trapping. Different models of fluid flow and hydrocarbon entrapments were constructed for the Mishrif Formation in (Rumaila South RU, Rumaila North R, West Qurna WQ, Majnon MJ, and ZubairZB) oilfields in Basra, southern Iraq. The dynamic flow within the oil reservoir was analyzed by measuring the specific gravity, hydrostatic pressure, hydrodynamic pressure, pressure gradient, salinity and hydraulic head. Fluid saturation in the pore space, hydrodynamic parameters, density, permeability and buoyancy influence fluid flow. The hydrodynamic model indicates that the oil fields are non-isolated reservoirs with a unifor

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Stability testing of time series data for CT Large industrial establishments in Iraq
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Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of ​​cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.

Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Estimation and Analysis of the Cobb-Duglas Production Function for the Rail Transport Sector in Iraq for the Period 1990-2016 using the ARDL Model)
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Abstract:

Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.

It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
Time series analysis of the number of covid-19 deaths in Iraq
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Spatial Data Analysis for Geostatistical Modeling of Petrophysical Properties for Mishrif Formaiton, Nasiriya Oil Field
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Spatial data analysis is performed in order to remove the skewness, a measure of the asymmetry of the probablitiy distribution. It also improve the normality, a key concept of statistics from the concept of normal distribution “bell shape”, of the properties like improving the normality porosity, permeability and saturation which can be are visualized by using histograms. Three steps of spatial analysis are involved here; exploratory data analysis, variogram analysis and finally distributing the properties by using geostatistical algorithms for the properties. Mishrif Formation (unit MB1) in Nasiriya Oil Field was chosen to analyze and model the data for the first eight wells. The field is an anticline structure with northwest- south

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
NONPARAMETRIC And Semiparametric Bayesian Estimators in survival function analysis
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 Most statistical research generally relies on the study of the behaviour of different phenomena during specific time periods and the use of the results of these studies in the development of appropriate recommendations and decision-making and for the purpose of statistical inference on the parameters of the statistical distribution of life times in  The technical staff of most of the manufacturers in the research units of these companies deals with censored data, the main objective of the study of survival is the need to provide information that is the basis for decision making and must clarify the problem and then the goals and limitations of this study and that  It may have different possibilities to perform the

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 18 2025
Journal Name
Iranian Journal Of Science
Exploring Neimark-Sacker Bifurcation and Chaos Control in a Tri-species Discrete-Time Model
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