This research dealt with the analysis of murder crime data in Iraq in its temporal and spatial dimensions, then it focused on building a new model with an algorithm that combines the characteristics associated with time and spatial series so that this model can predict more accurately than other models by comparing them with this model, which we called the Combined Regression model (CR), which consists of merging two models, the time series regression model with the spatial regression model, and making them one model that can analyze data in its temporal and spatial dimensions. Several models were used for comparison with the integrated model, namely Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Neural Network Regression (NNR). The data used is about the monthly numbers of murder crimes for the police directorates in Baghdad and the governorates during the period from January 2015 to June 2023. The data was analyzed and then divided into two sets, a training and testing set, to perform these models in prediction. The accuracy of each modsl’s performance was evaluated using two statistical measures: RMSE and in order to determine the best and most accurate performing model among the selected models. An important result was obtained in the comparison between these models, as the combined model obtained the most accurate performance than the other models, based on the values of the performance accuracy metrics for each model in relation to the data used in the murder crimes.
This study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .
That is , parameters will be estim
... Show MoreA large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar
... Show MoreCOVID-19 is a disease that has abnormal over 170 nations worldwide. The number of infected people (either sick or dead) has been growing at a worrying ratio in virtually all the affected countries. Forecasting procedures can be instructed so helping in scheming well plans and in captivating creative conclusions. These procedures measure the conditions of the previous thus allowing well forecasts around the state to arise in the future. These predictions strength helps to make contradiction of likely pressures and significances. Forecasting procedures production a very main character in elastic precise predictions. In this case study used two models in order to diagnose optimal approach by compared the outputs. This study was introduce
... Show MoreAbstract: The premise of the study is that populism is a process of building political views and critical intellectual orientations among the general public. It is transformed into mass beliefs by mobilizing the society ideologically and continuously in order to reach or control the circle of authority. We distributed the study topics to four sections: In the second, we will discuss the contents of contemporary populism and how other forms of populism evolved historically. The third is to discuss the political discourse of populism among the military regimes and the comparative Islamic parties in the Middle East, especially in terms of the essence and the intellectual foundations. The fourth section seeks to examine the characteristics o
... Show MoreAt the beginning of the twentieth century distorting handling totalitarian phenomena of art, which can be called the stage of the test, transition from the theory of ideal theory and other realistic is not cushy, since it requires vision and reading and other concepts, and in light of this dialectic manifested research problem by asking the following Is affected by the design idealism and realism. Through the above mentioned questions, the researcher found rationale for addressing this problem, the study through his research, which is marked (idealism and realism in a comparative study design). And demonstrated the importance of research in the identification of the concept and the effectiveness of the two theories idealism and realism a
... Show MoreThis paper deals with two preys and stage-structured predator model with anti-predator behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the appearance of local and Hopf bifurcation of the system have been achieved, and it’s observed that near the free predator, the free second prey and the free first prey equilibrium points there are transcritical or pitchfork and no saddle node. While near the coexistence equilibrium point there is transcritical, pitchfork and saddle node bifurcation. For the Hopf bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point have been studied. Further, numerical analysis has been used to validate the main results.
Researching the effects of the research and technological development contract, determining its extent and demarcating the boundaries of the obligations imposed in it, is the cornerstone of economic growth and development, because defining these obligations removes the ambiguity and conflict between interests, by stating the rights owed to each party and even trying to reconcile them, or impose protection by specifying guarantees that are compatible with the essence of the R&D contract, For the purpose of studying the subject thoroughly, we will divide this research into two sections. The first is devoted to identifying the parties to the research and technological development contract. As for the other topic, we will explain the obligation
... Show MoreThe experimental proton resonance data for the reaction P+48Ti have been used to calculate and evaluate the level density by employed the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, GOE version of RMT, Constant Temperature, CT and Back Shifted Fermi Gas, BSFG models at certain spin-parity and at different proton energies. The results of GOE model are found in agreement with other, while the level density calculated using the BSFG Model showed less values with spin dependence more than parity, due the limitation in the parameters (level density parameter, a, Energy shift parameter, E1and spin cut off parameter, σc). Also, in the CT Model the level density results depend mainly on two parameters (T and ground state back shift energy, E0), which are app
... Show MoreDeveloping and researching antenna designs are analogous to excavating in an undiscovered mine. This paper proposes a multi-band antenna with a new hexagonal ring shape, theoretically designed, developed, and analyzed using a CST before being manufactured. The antenna has undergone six changes to provide the best performance. The results of the surface current distribution and the electric field distribution on the surface of the hexagonal patch were theoretically analyzed and studied. The sequential approach taken to determine the most effective design is logical, and prevents deviation from the work direction. After comparing the six theoretical results, the fifth model proved to be the best for making a prototype. Measured results rep
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