In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decades.
A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was
... Show MorePolycystic ovary syndrome(PCOS) is a heterogeneous disorder of uncertain etiology , it is the most common endocrinopathy in women and most common cause of anovulatery infertility ,characterized by chronic anovulation and hyperandrogenemia .The present study was designed to investigate the effect of silymarin which is known to have antioxidant and insulin sensitivity effects on the levels of glucose, insulin ,testosterone ,leutinizing hormone(LH) and progesterone .Ovulation rate and Homeostasis Model Assessment of insulin Resistance (HOMA) ratio were determined .A 3-months of treatment were conducted in 60 PCOS patients in three well-matched groups .The first one (n=20),received silymarin(750mg/day) .The second group received
... Show MoreThe construction industry in Iraq suffers from many problems, perhaps the most important of which is the delay in time and the increase in costs. Therefore, it was necessary to try to adopt a new methodology that would help in overcoming these problems. It was suggested to combine building information modeling with the agile management approach because this technique and methodology is modern and helps in reducing time and cost and improving quality. This paper aims to know the status of using Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Agile Project management (APM) in Iraq and to shed light on the merging of this integration, explaining the benefits, difficulties, and workflow practices, finding the most influencing factors on the tim
... Show MoreThis paper proposes a self organizing fuzzy controller as an enhancement level of the fuzzy controller. The adjustment mechanism provides explicit adaptation to tune and update the position of the output membership functions of the fuzzy controller. Simulation results show that this controller is capable of controlling a non-linear time varying system so that the performance of the system improves so as to reach the desired state in a less number of samples.
In this article, we aim to define a universal set consisting of the subscripts of the fuzzy differential equation (5) except the two elements and , subsets of that universal set are defined according to certain conditions. Then, we use the constructed universal set with its subsets for suggesting an analytical method which facilitates solving fuzzy initial value problems of any order by using the strongly generalized H-differentiability. Also, valid sets with graphs for solutions of fuzzy initial value problems of higher orders are found.
In this research, the covariance estimates were used to estimate the population mean in the stratified random sampling and combined regression estimates. were compared by employing the robust variance-covariance matrices estimates with combined regression estimates by employing the traditional variance-covariance matrices estimates when estimating the regression parameter, through the two efficiency criteria (RE) and mean squared error (MSE). We found that robust estimates significantly improved the quality of combined regression estimates by reducing the effect of outliers using robust covariance and covariance matrices estimates (MCD, MVE) when estimating the regression parameter. In addition, the results of the simulation study proved
... Show MoreIn this paper, Response Surface Method (RSM) is utilized to carry out an investigation of the impact of input parameters: electrode type (E.T.) [Gr, Cu and CuW], pulse duration of current (Ip), pulse duration on time (Ton), and pulse duration off time (Toff) on the surface finish in EDM operation. To approximate and concentrate the suggested second- order regression model is generally accepted for Surface Roughness Ra, a Central Composite Design (CCD) is utilized for evaluating the model constant coefficients of the input parameters on Surface Roughness (Ra). Examinations were performed on AISI D2 tool steel. The important coefficients are gotten by achieving successfully an Analysis of V
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