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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Usage of non-linear programming in building a mathematical model for production planning according to discount constraints put on bought amount
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Abstract

 This research deals will the declared production planning operation in the general company of planting oils, which have  great role in production operations management who had built mathematical model for correct non-linear programming according to discounting operation during raw materials or half-made materials purchasing operation which concentration of six main products by company but discount included just three products of raw materials, and there were six months taken from the 1st half of 2014 as a planning period has been chosen . Simulated annealing algorithm  application on non-linear model which been more difficulty than possible solution when imposed restric

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Bahrain Medical Bulletin
Challenges Facing Nurses Toward Providing Care to Patients with Cerebrovascular Accidents: A Mixed Methods Study
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Background: Understanding the challenges facing nurses toward providing care to patients with cerebrovascular accidents is the initial step in developing strategies to address these challenges, thereby ensuring high-quality care. Aim: The study aimed to assess the challenges experienced by nurses in delivering care to patients with CVAs in neurological wards. Results: Of the 80 questionnaire participants in the qualitative part, (MS = 0.66) reported a "moderate" rating as an overall assessment. These challenges are divided into workload (MS = 0.53) at a moderate rate, the psychological burden (MS = 0.85) at a high rate, the supporting materials (MS = 0.85) at a high rate, the sense of responsibility (MS = 0.77) at a high rate, and the role

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 10 2024
Journal Name
American Journal Of Economics And Business Innovation
Factors Associated with Employees’ Intention to Leave in ICT Sector in Iraq: A Factor Analysis
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The current paper aims to identify potential factors associated with employees’ intentions to leave information and communication technology companies in Iraq. There is evident variability in the literature regarding these factors; hence, a factor analysis approach was employed to identify these factors within the surveyed environment. Due to the difficulty in precisely delineating the size of the research population, a purposive sampling method was employed to reach an appropriate number of respondents within the aforementioned companies. A total of 288 employees responded to the survey conducted via Google Forms. The test results revealed the presence of five primary factors associated with employees’ intentions to leave, name

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Form a proposal to audit the mutual operations with related parties program in accordance with international standards: Proposal pattern
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The relationships between the related parties constitute a normal feature of trading and business processes. Entities may perform parts of their activities through subsidiary entities, joint ventures and associate entities. In these cases, the entity has the ability to influence the financial and operating policies of the investee through control, joint control or significant influence,  So could affect established knowledge of transactions and balances outstanding, including commitments, and relationships with related to the evaluation of its operations by users of financial statements, including the risks and opportunities facing the entity assess the parties. So research has gained importance of the importance of the availability

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
A Predictive Model for Estimating Unconfined Compressive Strength from Petrophysical Properties in the Buzurgan Oilfield, Khasib Formation, Using Log Data
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Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of rock is the most critical geomechanical property widely used as input parameters for designing fractures, analyzing wellbore stability, drilling programming and carrying out various petroleum engineering projects. The USC regulates rock deformation by measuring its strength and load-bearing capacity. The determination of UCS in the laboratory is a time-consuming and costly process. The current study aims to develop empirical equations to predict UCS using regression analysis by JMP software for the Khasib Formation in the Buzurgan oil fields, in southeastern Iraq using well-log data. The proposed equation accuracy was tested using the coefficient of determination (R²), the average absolute

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 17 2026
Journal Name
Adab Al Rafidayn
Measuring the quality of office services using (LibQUAL + ®): the central library of the University of Baghdad as a model
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Libraries, information centers, and everything related to organizing and preparing information need to be periodically re-evaluated in order to stand on the level of quality, which means improving the general reality of these institutions to ensure sufficient satisfaction from beneficiaries of the services provided. This is what was worked on in this research, as one of the most important quality standards in libraries and information centers, LibQUAL+®, was applied in one of the most important and oldest central university libraries, namely the Central Library of the University of Baghdad at its two locations, Al-Jadriya and Al-Waziriya. The sample of beneficiaries to whom the questionnaire was distributed reached 75 beneficiaries distrib

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effectiveness of a Simulation Model of Thermal Insulation in Building Materials Using Cellulose Extracted from Agricultural Waste in Baghdad
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This study found that one of the constructive, necessary, beneficial, most effective, and cost-effective ways to meet the great challenge of rising energy prices is to develop and improve energy quality and efficiency. The process of improving the quality of energy and its means has been carried out in many buildings and around the world. It was found that the thermal insulation process in buildings and educational facilities has become the primary tool for improving energy efficiency, enabling us to improve and develop the internal thermal environment quality processes recommended for users (student - teacher). An excellent and essential empirical study has been conducted to calculate the fundamental values ​​of the

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Publication Date
Thu May 05 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Time-Trend Analysis of Bladder Cancer and its Association with Bilhariziasis in Egypt
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Background: Both bladder cancer and schistosomiasis are endemic in Egypt. The former has a unique epidemiological pattern, which has been linked to bladder infestation by Schistosoma. The last decades have witnessed a great reduction in the infection rate of schistosomiasis and a decline in the incidence and changes in the patterns of bladder cancer. Whether these changes are linked to each other or a co-incidence is a subject of investigations.

Method: Literature on epidemiological data of bladder cancer and Schistosoma in Egypt was searched for in Medline, Scopus, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Furthermore, a hand search for literature and reports released by the Egyptian government and involved agencies was perfo

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Chemical Engineering Research And Design
Treatment of petroleum refinery wastewater by electrofenton process using a low cost porous graphite air-diffusion cathode with a novel design
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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2023
Journal Name
Heliyon
A new approach for cobalt (II) removal from simulated wastewater using electro membrane extraction with a flat sheet supported liquid membrane
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