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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Computers, Materials & Continua
Fused and Modified Evolutionary Optimization of Multiple Intelligent Systems Using ANN, SVM approaches
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 31 2013
Journal Name
Inventi Impact: Artificial Intelligence
SIMULATION OF IDENTIFICATION AND CONTROL OF SCARA ROBOT USING MODIFIED RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS
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This paper presents a modified training method for Recurrent Neural Networks. This method depends on the Non linear Auto Regressive (NARX) model with Modified Wavelet Function as activation function (MSLOG) in the hidden layer. The modified model is known as Modified Recurrent Neural (MRN). It is used for identification Forward dynamics of four Degrees of Freedom (4-DOF) Selective Compliance Assembly Robot Arm (SCARA) manipulator robot. This model is also used in the design of Direct Inverse Control (DIC). This method is compared with Recurrent Neural Networks that used Sigmoid activation function (RS) in the hidden layer and Recurrent Neural Networks with Wavelet activation function (RW). Simulation results shows that the MRN model is bett

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 12 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Electrochemical Determination of Tetracycline at SPCE modified with Nanocomposite
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An electrochemical sensor based on manganese dioxide nanorodMnO2and Graphene oxide (GO) functionalized with 4-amino, 3-substituted 1H, 1, 2, 4 Triazole 5(4H) thion (FGO)/MnO2Nanocompositewas developed for voltammetric determination of Tetracycline (TET).The working electrode WE of SPCE was modified bya drop casting method. X-ray powder diffractometer (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and FT-IR were employed to characterize the synthesized FGO/MnO2. The determination of TET at the modified electrode was studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in the phosphate buffer solution (PBS).TET show sharp increase in the oxidation peaks in the pH 2.Voltammetric characteristics of TET (Epa, Ipa) were estimate

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Thermal Simulation for Unconditioned Single Zone with Modified Roof
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Roof in the Iraqi houses normally flattening by a concrete panel. This concrete panel has poor thermal properties. The usage of materials with low thermal conductivity and high specific heat gives a good improvements to the thermal properties of the concrete panel, thus, the indoor room temperature improves. A Mathcad program based on a mathematical model employing complex Fourier series built for a single room building. The model input data are the ambient temperature, solar radiation, and sol-air temperature, which have been treated as a periodic function of time. While, the room construction is constant due to their materials made of it, except the roof properties are taken as a variable generated practically from the

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Fatigue performance of asphalt binders modified with varying nanomaterials
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This study investigates the influence of five nanomaterials nano-alumina (NA), nano-silica (NS), nano-titanium (NT), nano-zinc oxide (NZ), and carbon nanotubes (CNT)on enhancing the fatigue resistance of asphalt binders. NA, NS, and NT were incorporated at dosages of 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, and 10%, while NZ and CNT were added at 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, and 5%. A series of physical, rheological, and performance-based tests were conducted, including penetration, softening point, ductility, and rotational viscosity. Based on the outcomes of the overall desirability evaluation, the first three dosages of each nanomaterial were selected for further testing due to their superior workability and binder flexibility. Subsequent investigations included the high-tem

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Construction Time-Cost Optimization Modeling Using Ant Colony Optimization
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In the field of construction project management, time and cost are the most important factors to be considered in planning every project, and their relationship is complex. The total cost for each project is the sum of the direct and indirect cost. Direct cost commonly represents labor, materials, equipment, etc.
Indirect cost generally represents overhead cost such as supervision, administration, consultants, and interests. Direct cost grows at an increasing rate as the project time is reduced from its original planned time. However, indirect cost continues for the life of the project and any reduction in project time means a reduction in indirect cost. Therefore, there is a trade-off between the time and cost for completing construc

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Contaminants Removal from Real Refinery Wastewater Associated with Energy Generation in Microbial Fuel Cell
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
A comparative study between the emotional responses in patients with blood pressure on a scale of music types characteristics compared with responses to some Healthy patients
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The problem of the study and its significance:

           Due to the increasing pressures of life continually, and constant quest behind materialism necessary and frustrations that confront us daily in general, the greater the emergence of a number of cases of disease organic roots psychological causing them because of severity of a lack of response to conventional treatments (drugs), and this is creating in patients a number of emotional disorders resulting from concern the risk of disease

 

     That is interested psychologists and doctors searchin

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
The possibility of Using the Low-Cost External Antenna with Smartphone for Accurate Surveying Applications by RTX Technology
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Abstract<p>Real Time Extended (RTX) technology works to take advantage of real-time data comes from the global network of tracking stations together with inventor locating and compression algorithms to calculate and relaying the orbit of satellite, satellite atomic clock, and any other systems corrections to the receivers, which lead to real-time correction with high accuracy. These corrections will be transferred to the receiver antenna by satellite (where coverage is available) and by IP (Internet Protocol) for the rest of world to provide the accurate location on the screen of smartphone or tablet by using specific software. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of Global Navig</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
The possibility of Using the Low-Cost External Antenna with Smartphone for Accurate Surveying Applications by RTX Technology
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Abstract<p>Real Time Extended (RTX) technology works to take advantage of real-time data comes from the global network of tracking stations together with inventor locating and compression algorithms to calculate and relaying the orbit of satellite, satellite atomic clock, and any other systems corrections to the receivers, which lead to real-time correction with high accuracy. These corrections will be transferred to the receiver antenna by satellite (where coverage is available) and by IP (Internet Protocol) for the rest of world to provide the accurate location on the screen of smartphone or tablet by using specific software. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of Global Navig</p> ... Show More
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