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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 23 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Continuous Flow Injection-Turbidimetric Analysis for Determination of Cobalt (II) Ion in Alloys Using a Microcell with Irradiation Sources at 0–180° Using a Single Solar Cell as a Detector
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A cost-effective and efficient detector was created to conduct thorough turbidimetric measurements by reaction of Co (II) ion with calcium ferro cyanide to form bright green particulate, using the method of continuous flow injection analysis, the use of NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer in determining cobalt (II) ion in a test for the validity of the new design. The NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer is composed of five irradiation sources of white snow leds having the diameter of 10 mm with one solar cell of 55 mm length, 13.5 mm width. Using a selector switch to select the optimum voltage to be used which was 2.7 VDC. Under conditions of optimization, cobalt (II) ion was determined at 0.005–20 mmol. L–1(n = 23) while linearity dynamic range 0.005–7 mm

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 23 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
UTILIZATION OF MODIFIED ATMOSPHERE PACKAGING TO EXTEND SHELF LIFE AND MAINTAIN QUALITY OF KHALAL BARHI DATES: UTILIZATION OF MODIFIED ATMOSPHERE PACKAGING TO EXTEND SHELF LIFE AND MAINTAIN QUALITY OF KHALAL BARHI DATES
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Barhi dates fruit are one of the most important date palm cultivars which are some of their properties they are mostly eaten and sold at the khalal stage when it has become yellow compared with rutab stage. At this stage the fruit loses its astringency and becomes sweet and best texture, therefore. High moisture content and rapid ripening of Barhi dates shorten their shelf life, as well the Khalal stage lasts for about 4 weeks until the ripening of the fruits begins and transfer to rutab stage. In the present study, Barhi dates packaging in the first by common air - packaging and
second by Modified atmosphere packaging, MAP A (5% O2 + 20% CO2) and MAP B (40%O2+20%CO2) and stored for 30 days at different temperatures 5 and 20 °C, re

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 13 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Using the Maximum Likelihood Method with a Suggested Weight to Estimate the Effect of Some Pollutants on the Tigris River- City of Kut
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The aim of this research is to use robust technique by trimming, as the analysis of maximum likelihood (ML) often fails in the case of outliers in the studied phenomenon. Where the (MLE) will lose its advantages because of the bad influence caused by the Outliers. In order to address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so as not to be affected by the outliers. These methods have robustness or resistance. Therefore, maximum trimmed likelihood: (MTL) is a good alternative to achieve more results. Acceptability and analogies, but weights can be used to increase the efficiency of the resulting capacities and to increase the strength of the estimate using the maximum weighted trimmed likelihood (MWTL). In order to perform t

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 31 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Economics And Finance Studies
GLOBAL GREEN FINANCE AS A CATALYST FOR ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY WITH REFERENCE TO IRAQ'S AGRICULTURAL SMES
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This research aims to examine the role of global green finance as a critical driver of both economic and environmental sustainability within small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises (SMEs) in Iraq. Utilizing a convergent mixed-methods framework, the study integrates qualitative interviews with key stakeholders and a quantitative survey of 300 agricultural SMEs to assess the barriers, enablers, and institutional conditions influencing the adoption of green finance. The findings indicate that, despite growing awareness and substantial latent demand for sustainability-linked investments, adoption is significantly constrained by institutional fragmentation, regulatory ambiguity, and resource limitations at the firm level. Grounded in Ins

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 20 2026
Journal Name
Pharmaceutics
Analytical Physicochemical and Functional Studies to Compare AryoTrust, a Follow-On Biologics, with the Originator Trastuzumab (Herceptin)
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Background: Trastuzumab is a blockbuster monoclonal antibody that has revolutionized the treatment of HER2-positive breast and gastric cancers. With the increasing availability of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies in clinical practice, independent verification of biosimilarity using products sampled from a real-world supply chain is important to assure clinicians and the patients to use these products confidently. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the biosimilarity of AryoTrust, a trastuzumab biosimilar, in comparison with the reference product Herceptin. AryoTrust and Herceptin products were randomly withdrawn from Iraqi hospitals to reflect medicines administered in real clinical settings. Methods: AryoTrust and Hercept

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 28 2022
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
A Case-control Study to Determine Metalloproteinase-12 and Lysyl Oxidase Levels in Iraqi women with Osteoporosis
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The current study aimed to ascertain the levels of matrix metalloproteinase-12 (MMP-12) and Lysyl oxidase (LOX) in osteoporosis patients and their correlation with alkaline phosphatase (ALP), magnesium (Mg), vitamin D (Vit D), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and T-score %. 110 participants recruited from Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Iraq, were enrolled in this study from November 2019 to March 2020). The participants were divided into two groups: Group 1 comprised 60 osteoporotic women and group 2 consisted of 50 healthy women. (MMP and LOX) were estimated using a quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. The results showed significant differences in serum LOX, age, ALP, Mg, and T-score %, while no significant differences i

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Photometry Technique to Map Elements’ Distribution on Comets’ Nuclei Surfaces Using a New Method
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This study is unique in this field. It represents a mix of three branches of technology: photometry, spectroscopy, and image processing. The work treats the image by treating each pixel in the image based on its color, where the color means a specific wavelength on the RGB line; therefore, any image will have many wavelengths from all its pixels. The results of the study are specific and identify the elements on the nucleus’s surface of a comet, not only the details but also their mapping on the nucleus. The work considered 12 elements in two comets (Temple 1 and 67P/Churyumoy-Gerasimenko). The elements have strong emission lines in the visible range, which were recognized by our MATLAB program in the treatment of the image. The percen

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
USING A NEW METHOD TO INDUCE TARGETED GENETIC MUTATIONS IN POTATO VIRUS Y (PVY)
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Publication Date
Thu May 07 2026
Journal Name
Frontiers In Sustainability
Using ethical artificial intelligence (EAI) to achieve sustainable development, Iraq as a case study
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Introduction

Iraq faces persistent challenges in achieving sustainable development due to decades of conflict, political instability, and infrastructural degradation. These challenges are particularly evident in critical sectors such as energy, water, healthcare, education, and governance, which significantly influence human well-being, social equity, and quality of life. This study proposes an AI-driven, ethically guided, and human-centric sustainability framework to support resilient urban transformation in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2024
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal For Engineering Sciences
Investigation of an automobile air-conditioner with a liquid-suction heat exchanger using R134a and R1234yf
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Air-conditioning systems (ACs) are essential in hot and humid climates to ensure acceptable ambient air quality as well as thermal comfort for buildings users. It is essential to improve refrigeration system performance without increasing the effects of global warming potential (GWP) and ozone depletion potential (ODP). The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of an air conditioning system that operates with a liquid suction heat exchanger (LSHX) through implementing refrigerants with zero OPD and low GWP (i.e., R134a and R1234yf). Liquid suction heat exchanger (LSHX) was added to an automobile air conditioning system (AACS).When Liquid suction heat exchanger was added to the cycle, primary results indicated t

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