Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Background: This study compared in vitro the marginal adaptation of three different, low shrink, direct posterior composites Filtekâ„¢ P60 (packable composite), Filtekâ„¢ P90 (Silorane-based composite) and Sonic fillâ„¢ (nanohybrid composite) at three different composite/enamel interface regions (occlusal, proximal and gingival regions) of a standardized Class II MO cavity after thermal changes and mechanical load cycling by scanning electron microscopy. Materials and methods:Thirty six sound human maxillary first premolars of approximately comparable sizes were divided into three main groups of (12 teeth) in each according to the type of restorative material that was used: group (A) the teeth were restored with Filtekâ„¢ P6
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Praise be to Allah, the Lord of the Worlds, the best prayer and the best prayer, on our master Muhammad, and on his pure God, and his companions and the faithful, and who followed them by charity to the day of religion. This relationship between emphasis, is a sincere, and this harmony, such as the relationship between water, and the green, but it is good, but, with greenery, it is better, and as well as alone, is a beautiful view, but the most beautiful, with the most beautiful. From here he was starting on myself in writing the fundamentalist research of jurisprudence, to show the depth of this interconnection. The doctrine as a new term, then the taj al-Din al-Suobki came after three centuries, and a
... Show MoreThe current study aimed to reveal the moral values available in the Arabic language textbook (Al-Mu’nes) for grades eleven and twelve for post-basic education in the Sultanate of Oman. The researcher adopted the descriptive approach using the sentence as measuring unit in the analysis process. The five fields of moral values and their subcategories values represented the categories of the analysis. Iterations of values and the percentages of iteration were calculated in those textbooks. Moreover and the analysis and stability of the process were confirmed.
After referring to previous studies, it was possible to de
... Show MoreMaxim Gorky’s Mother is one of the most important literary genre in social realism, in which he depicts female characters with revolutionary fervor and enthusiasm, projecting his social ideologies and dreams. Though the novel unique importance lies in the fact that it has been thoroughly analyzed by many writers, historians and sociologists, there are almost no studies devoted to the role of women out of a Marxist and feminist point of view. The present paper sheds light on the Russian woman‘s important role in overcoming all adversity and gain her position on Social Realism.
Одно из центральных мест сре
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This research aims to apply the Performance Focused Activity Based Costing System in the offices of scientific and advisory services at the University of Technology for the purpose of measuring the cost of services provided by these offices in order to reduce costs. To test the hypothesis of the research, the research was applied in the consulting offices of the University of Technology through the financial statements for the year ending 12/31/2017 of the Scientific and Consulting Services Office of the University of Technology, because the data of these years were issued and audited by the Federal Office of Financial Supervision.
A number of
... Show MoreThe present research is descriptive and analytical by nature; it practically presents the method of implementing the standard pattern in an unconventional way using the bias-cut line. The study aims at investigating the variables of bias-cut and their suitability for fitting large-shaped Iraqi ladies. It also aims at exploring the artistic and innovative features of the bias-cut. Therefore, one needs to understand the rules and basics of clothing and the nature of the body to reach the maximum degree of control.Consequently, the study is to answer the following questions: What is the effectiveness of tailoring on the bias-cut in fitting a standard template of a large-shaped Iraqi ladies? Is it possible to obtain from the offered possibil
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