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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The concept of stigma and its representations in the Arab theatrical text (The Sultan, Al-Ha'ir play, by choice): نزار شبيب كريم - علاء حاتم محسن
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The research deals with the concept of stigma as one of the important phenomena that cast a shadow over the nature of the individual, his being and his personality through the inferior view with which he confronts in society, and (Sartors) indicates in this regard that stigma may lead to negative discrimination that leads to many defects, in terms of obtaining On care, poor health, service, and frequent setbacks that can damage self-esteem. The first roots of this phenomenon go back to the Greek civilization and what the Greeks used to burn and cut off some parts of the body and then announce to the nation that the bearer of this sign is a criminal. In addition to the Arab peoples living from setbacks that contributed to the exacerbation

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 12 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Experimental Study of Spatial Self-Phase Modulation (SSPM) Based on Laser Beam and Hybrid Functionalized Carbon Nanotubes/Silver Nanoparticles (F-Mwcnts/Ag-Nps) Acetone Suspensions
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Focusing of Gaussian laser beam through nonlinear media can induce spatial self- phase modulation which forms a far field intensity pattern of concentric rings. The nonlinear refractive index change of material depends on the number of pattern rings. In this paper, a formation of tunable nonlinear refractive index change of hybrid functionalized carbon nanotubes/silver nanoparticles acetone suspensions (F-MWCNTs/Ag-NPs) at weight mixing ratio of 1:3 and volume fraction of 6x10-6 , 9x10-6 , and 18x10-6 using laser beam at wavelength of 473nm was investigated experimentally. The results showed that tunable nonlinear refractive indices were obtained and increasing of incident laser power density led to increase the nonlinear refractive inde

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2024
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis, Structure and Biological Activity Studies of New Metal Ion Complexes Based on 3-[(3-Hydroxynaphthalene-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one
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In the present study, a novel ligand (L) made of 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde and 3-hydrazone-1,3-dihydro-indole-2-one(3-[(3-hydroxynaphthalen-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one). The ligand was characterized by FTIR, UV-vis, mass, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and CHN elemental analysis. New complexes of this ligand were created by treating methanol and a drop of DMF solution of the produced ligand with the hydrated metal salts of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) in a molar ratio of 2:1 (L:M). As a result, complexes have been emerged and identified FTIR, UV-vis, C.H.N., chloride-containing, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, and atomic absorption. The characterization result for each complex indicated complexes wi

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 25 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn: 1683 - 3597 , E-issn : 2521 - 3512)
Effects of Two Different Doses of Zinc Sulfate on Serum Troponin I 3 Enzyme Level and Cardiac Malondialdehyde Contents in Mitoxantrone-Induced Cardiotoxicity in Rats
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Abstract    Mitoxantrone is an antitumor agent used in the treatment of breast and prostate cancer, acute leukemia, lymphoma, and also in the treatment of multiple sclerosis due to its immunosuppressive properties. The mitoxantrone's cardiotoxicity is irreversible, dose-dependent, and it may occur years after treatment. Zinc is considered as an essential mineral for cell division and the synthesis of DNA and protein; furthermore, such mineral has an important role in states of cardiovascular diseases; and may have protective effects in coronary artery disease and cardiomyopathy. Objective: The current study is designed to investigate effects of two different doses of zinc sulfate on mitoxantrone-induced cardiotoxicity

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
The comparison of several methods for calculating the degree of heritability and calculating the number of genes in maize (Zea mays L.). I. Agronomic traits
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Abstract<p>The objective of present study was to compare of several methods for estimating the degree of heritability and calculating the number of genes using generation mean analysis of maize (<italic>Zea mays</italic>L.). The experiment was conducted at the field of Field Crop Dept. College of Agric / Univ. of Baghdad, for many seasons, spring and fall seasons 2009, 2010, spring 2011 and fall 2013.Six diverse inbred lines were crossed to produce F1,F2,BC1 and BC2 for four superior crosses.Broad-sense and narrow sense heritability estimates based on variance of different generations. The results showed that the four formulas used to estimate the heritability were different in estimating the values o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Role of ZnO content on the structural, morphology and optical properties of (NiO)1-x (ZnO) x thin films prepared by pulsed laser deposition technique
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Abstract<p>(NiO) <sub>1-x</sub> (ZnO) <sub>x</sub> compounds were prepared with different composition ratios. The compounds were obtained by mixing Nickle oxide and zinc oxide in the appropriate ratio and sintered at 1000°C for six hours. Pulsed laser deposition (PLD) method which is simple and inexpensive method was used to deposit (NiO) <sub>1-x</sub> (ZnO) <sub>x</sub> thin films on glass substrate at ambient temperature. Structural, optical and properties were investigated. The structures investigation obtained from x-ray diffraction showed that the prepared of compound as well as thin films have polycrystalline structure where the diffraction peaks w</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of effect of local exogenous application of Myrrh oil on healing of wound incisions of facial skin (Histochemical, Histological and Histomorphometrical study in rabbits)
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Aim of the study: Is to evaluate the effect of myrrh oil local application on the healing process of skin wounds histologically , histomorphometrically and , histochemically. Materials and methods:Twenty male white New Zealand rabbits were used in this study. An incisional wounds with full thickness depth and of 2 cm length were done on both sides of the cheek skin of each rabbit. The left sided incisions (the control group) were irrigated with distilled water (10µL). The right sided incisions (the experimental groups) were treated with myrrh oil (10µL). Each group was subdivided into 4 subgroups according to the healing interval into 1,3,7 and 14 days(5 rabbits for each group). Results: Histological findings of our current study s

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The Effect of Boot Camp Training Program on the Development of Special Strength and Some Biomechanical Indicators of the Triple Jump in Young Female Athletes
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The qualitative concept of training experienced athletes is not limited to strength training alone, but extends to general physical conditioning and, ultimately, to special strength training during the specific phases of athletic preparation, depending on the type of sport practiced. Since athletic training should not follow a single, monotonous pattern, the researchers adopted modern Boot camp exercises to develop special strength and biomechanical variables for female triple jump athletes. The study aimed to design Boot camp exercises specifically to enhance special strength and certain biomechanical indicators in young female triple jump athletes, and to identify the impact of these exercises on their performance. The researchers

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Agrometeorology
Assessment of the impact of dust pollution on chlorophyll, carotenoids, and ascorbic acid in the vegetation leaves of some areas in Baghdad – Al-Rusafa, Iraq
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Baghdad, one of Iraq’s most crowded cities, faces severe air pollution caused by rapid population growth, dense traffic, and limited green spaces. Monitoring at five sites in Al-Rusafa during 2024–2025 showed that pollutant levels, especially PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, and TSP, exceed national and global limits. The most polluted areas lacked vegetation and had heavy traffic, while greener zones showed lower concentrations. Seasonal variations were evident: winter had the highest pollution, summer the lowest but with greater plant stress. Ascorbic acid and the Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) proved reliable indicators of plant resistance. Overall, the study confirms plants’ role as effective bio monitors and stresses the need f

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
An Economic Study of the Margins and Profits of Middlemen in the Marketing of Chicken Meat Marketing Channels in Baghdad Province for the Season 2023
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Abstract<p>Marketing studies are important to researchers and policy makers. The study of marketing margins and efficiency is important to understand the marketing problems that face parties of the marketing process. The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency margins and the most important marketing channels for marketing chicken meat in the province of Baghdad and to identify the most important marketing problems facing marketers of the commodity. The absolute marketing margins were (0, 1360, 1570, 1545) for the four channels respectively, while the price paid by the consumer was variable according to the marketing channel (3150, 3790, 3920, 4065) for the four channels respectively. T</p> ... Show More
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