Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
This study measures the indicators of social and environmental performance of the contents of the administration's prepared reports on its social and environmental performance by comparing the actual performance with the indicators set within the standards of the Global Reports Initiative (GRI), In preparing this research, the researchers relied on studying the criteria of the Global Reporting Initiative, which aims to achieve a high level of performance disclosure under sustainability, In light of contemporary global trends towards achieving sustainable development and its disclosure and the orientations of economic institutions and units in different countries towards emphasizing the extent of commitment during practicing its a
... Show MoreRepresent choices Behaviorism available to the Managerial leaders one of the prerequisites to run any beginnings of a psychological or dilemmas Managerial barriers to working in the field of work has been varied these options until it had taken several kinds of which contributed to the left different impacts on the alleviation of these problems, which prompted the researcher to raising the problem of study within the framework of questionable content how to contribute to that shown by Choices Behaviorism accredited to the Managerial leaders in the management of frustration
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to identify the extent to which the Conventional and Islamic banks are committed to implement the requirements of the corporate governance in its financial reports. In addition to its commitment to transparency and clarity in dealing with the shareholders and stockholders to protect their interests and to determine the impact of the commitment of the corporate governance on assessing the financial performance of the conventional and Islamic banks that participate in Bahrain Stock Exchange.
The aim of the research is to identify an appropriate training method that raises the levels of immune globulins (IgA, IgM, IgG) and white blood cells and the effect of training by (HIT) method using resistance (weights) as a training curriculum that increases immunity and ensures the continuation of the pills after the return of activity from the stone The response to the Covid-19 epidemic among amateur weightlifters, the researchers relied on the method of trace analysis in an experimental way by conducting a pre-, medial and post-test with the same experimental one agroup on a sample of amateur weightlifters in the Fury private hall for weightlifting and body building in Adhamiya, the number of sample members reached (15 players) who int
... Show MoreThis study aimed to reveal the extent to which the values of social peace are included in the content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this goal, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. The study sample consisted of all developed social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia in first and second semester of student books in edition of 1439-1440. The study tool was the analysis card. The study reached the following results: 1-The content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a whole included (38) social peace values of total (40) values, corresponding to the inclusio
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The current study is concerned over the benefits from our Prophet ' Surah , these benefits are seven which are : the first : ( The losing , disappointment , weakness in the affairs of those disbelievers ,the second : showing the affairs of the believers in respect to integrity , forgiveness and rest, the third : Indicating the big difference between the believers and disbelievers , each team has his own characteristics that being distinguished from the other, I have explained the benefit that the disbelievers are in a difficult
... Show MoreMotives: This study examines the integration of Feng Shui principles into urban public spaces to enhance social interaction, livability, and environmental harmony. The case study focuses on the Al-Arabi and Al-Washash neighbourhoods in Baghdad, exploring how spatial characteristics influence engagement and energy circulation (Qi) within the urban network. The motivation arises from deficiencies in connectivity, shading, greenery, and water features, which limit social and aesthetic vibrancy. Aim: The objectives are to evaluate spatial and social dynamics through the Feng Shui Public-Space Index (FS-PSI), Space Syntax analysis, and resident surveys, and to propose strategies using Feng Shui design proxies to improve energy flow, acce
... Show MoreObjectives: Successful endodontic treatment outcome requires effective shaping and cleaning of root canals. This study aims to evaluate the smear layer removal after continuous chelation (CC) ) NaOCL\HEDP( and sequential chelation (SC) )NaOCL\EDTA( and their influence on the push-out bond strength (POBS) of Bio-C sealer. Materials and Methods: Palatal roots of the maxillary first molar (n=72) were divided into four groups (n=18) as follows: 3% NaOCL, SC: 3% NaOCL followed by 17% EDTA, CC: 3% NaOCL \9% HEDP and Distilled water. Thirty-two roots (n=8/group) were split longitudinally for smear layer evaluation using SEM. Forty roots were obturated with Guttapercha and Bio-C sealer using a single cone technique. Thre
... Show MoreThis research sheds light on the morphological structure of nouns and verbs in the novel "ASTONISHMENT" by the novelist Aharon Applefield by analysing selected models from the novel in a morphological analysis in order to identify the most important morphological features of this structure according to a statistical analytical approach.
The morphological structure is the main pillar of the linguistic structure of the literary text. Morphology is the science that studies the word, by which its structure and original letters are known, and the change that has occurred to it. The aesthetics of the fictional text is reflected in this structure, through which the writer conveys his ideas and narrations to the reader. The research
... Show MoreAbstract:
The aim of the present research is to evaluate the child’s nutritional
method (2-5 years old) which is based on his resistance of the food highly rich
with nutritional elements and his acceptance of the food of a low nutritional
value in addition to his having forbidden food with other mates and making
use of all mates when having food, in establishing the sound social values and
affection since child hood. The required statistical equation have been used
by the researcher namely (Z test).
The sample of the present study consists of (26) children who were selected
intentionally and randomly from the kindergartens of Al-Bayaa region and the
college of Education for women. The questionnaires were d