Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The research aims to shed light on the nature of the tax gap in the income tax by the method of direct deduction and its reflection on the financial objective of the tax, and to determine the reasons for this gap in the deduction between the tax due in accordance with the laws and instructions in force and the tax actually paid. The tax gap is a real problem that cannot be ignored for what it represents loss of financial revenues due to the state.
The research problem is represented in the existence of a gap between the tax due according to direct deduction instructions and the tax actually paid according to the financial statements, and to achieve the objectives of the research and test the hypotheses, t
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The study aims to identify the extent to which the applied colleges at the University of Technology and Applied Sciences meet the comprehensive quality standards in light of the national education strategy for the 2040 Vision in the Sultanate of Oman. To do this, the researchers used the descriptive approach. They used a questionnaire as a tool for data collection that was applied to (237) administrators, academics, and support functions. The study found that the extent to which the applied colleges at the University of Technology and Applied Sciences meet the comprehensive quality standards in the light of the National Education Strategy 2040 in the Sultanate of Oman recorded a high range. The study als
... Show MoreEl estudio se clasifica dentro los estudios teóricos sobre literatura que se ocupa del estudio de los métodos de la crítica literaria: El Estructralismo literario francés y el Formalismo ruso del siglo XX que se utilizan en la interpretación literaría. Las dos corrientes literarias estudian la literatura como ciencia que busca aplicar un método científico al estudio de la literatura. Dicho estudio trata de exponer las teorías críticas que surgen en el debate de la interpretación de los textos literarios como el de Susan Sontag, Ricoeur Paul y Mijail Bajitin, etc. Además se incluye algunos ejemplos implican el análisis estructuralista y formalista como Kafka y la tragedia Judía. y Sur Racine.
ABSTRACT:
... Show MoreLas diferencias entre el pretérito perfecto simple y el imperfecto son uno de los temas más complejos de la lengua española, no sólo para el estudiante, sino para el profesor, puesto que sistematizar los casos y hacerlos fácilmente comprensibles al alumno es tarea difícil. Los profesores de lengua, cuyas investigaciones han dado lugar a una serie de teorías y de corrientes metodológicas y didácticas que permiten enfocar la enseñanza de una lengua extranjera de manera muy distinta a como se hacía tradicionalmente. Vamos a repasar muy brevemente cuáles son estas teorías.
En primer lugar es necesario señalar en qué consiste el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua:
"El aprendizaje de una segunda lengua (L2) es el
... Show MoreHedging is a linguistic avoidance of full commitment or precision. It is the use of a vague language. The main objectives of this study are to
... Show MoreThe mysterious letters, the philosophy of existence and the meaning of these letters in the Qur'an is one of the mysterious issues that has always occupied the minds of Interpreters. Each Interpreter has tried to provide his own interpretation and understanding of these mysterious letters. Since these letters are part of the surah of the Qur'an and at the same time, the appearance of these letters, unlike other verses, does not indicate meaning, the commentators have approached these verses with their preconceptions. In this article, an attempt has been made to investigate the role of pre-interpreters of descriptors in a descriptive and analytical method in finding the meaning of syllables. However, each of them has tried to interpret th
... Show MoreThe research aims to show the relationship between the use of automated accounting systems technology and its impact on enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the internal control system in a sample of Bahraini universities in light of the rapid changes in the electronic business environment. Automated accounting and its impact on enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the internal control system, and it is concluded through the analytical study of the research sample that there is a percenta
... Show MoreWater pollution is widely regarded as one of the most pressing global challenges, exacerbated by human progress in industrial, agricultural, and technological sectors. Wastewater often contains non-biodegradable heavy metals that accumulate in living organisms. This accumulation poses significant risks to both environmental ecosystems and human health. The structures and surface morphology were characterized by FTIR, UV-vis measurements, XRD, SEM, and AFM. TiO2 nanoparticles could remove heavy metal ions (Pb2+, Cd2+, and Cr3+) from two samples (laboratory samples and real samples from Babylon battery factory in Al-Waziriya, Baghdad/Iraq) and measured by AAS. The results indicated that the removal percentages of heavy metal ions by T
... Show MoreThe article analyzes the neologisms that arose in the Iraqi dialect after the 2003 US-British invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, according to the theory I advocate: "The Basic Outline of Reference," a developed theory of Arab legacy and cognitive theory, which came out in 1987 in America, so we have used the terminology of cognitive grammar. In this theory it is stated that the reference is the interaction between four components: perception, imagination, imaginative comprehension and the linguistic sign or symbolization (the neological word in this article), which are closely related, so that none of them can be lacking, because they constitute a holistic whole that belongs to a deeper level. Let us
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