Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Multimedia is one of the most important elements of modern educational media and must be used in educational websites in order to disseminate knowledge on a large scale and should be used to provide scientific information to all, as the current research tried to explore the possibilities of employing them in the design of educational websites and highlight their role in promoting the scientific aspects of the user. This study included four axes, the first of which was devoted to the introduction which includes the problem of research, its importance, objectives and its objective, temporal and spatial limitations, which were limited to the study of the main pages of Arabic educational websites published in 2019. The second axis cont
... Show MoreLas formas verbales: el infinitivo, el gerundio y el participio, son derivados verbales que se comportan como sustantivos, adverbios o adjetivos, respectivamente; aunque, dado su carácter verbal pueden también funcionar como verbos y, por tanto, como núcleos del predicado.
El presente trabajo presenta una visión general sobre las formas no personales del verbo en español. Se debe recordar que las formas no personales del verbo tiene funciones y valores dentro de la oración.
Este trabajo lo dividimos en dos partes: la primera presenta un breve marco teórico en que se explica las formas no personales del verbo y como se forman además de sus funciones.
Abstract
... Show MoreNaturally available products have been used widely for centuries in handling human disease. The present study aimed to determine the effect of aluminum potassium sulfate addition into the soft liner on tensile strength and peel bond strength. The effect of aluminum potassium sulfate evaluated by two methods, first one include incorporation of KAL (SO4)2 into soft liner monomer in concentration (2%,3% by wt.) while the second method include immersion of soft liner specimens in solution of KAL(SO4)2 in concentration(5%,10% percent) during time periods (0,10 minutes). In conclusions, the results of current study encourage use KAL (SO4)2 within soft liner material
Abstract
The research aims to identify the strategic leadership and its role in activating the Organisational Performance, which is an analytical study of the views of the heads of scientific departments at General Authority of groundwater researcher's quest focused towards building a theoretical framework suitable for strategic leadership and performance Organisational and itُs dimensions.To achieve the aims of the research is designed to identify the researcher included (35) items to collect the raw data from the research sample consisting of 33 of the heads of departments. Data was collected by questionnaire, field visits, interviews and some official documents to complete the search data. It has also been used a numb
... Show MoreThe Southern Cowpea Beetle Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) is one of the most widespread insect pests of stored legumes, causing a considerable loss during storage, decreasing the net weight of the crops, and resulting in reduced the quality of the crops. This study has been conducted to determine the lifetime, fertility and life table parameters of C. maculatus by using an alkaloids extract from Moringa oleifera leaves at different concentrations 1000, 2000, and 3000 ppm. The result was shown that the lowest survival rate was 49% at a concentration of 1000, 2000 ppm, as compared with the control which was 77%. The lowest reproductive rate (Ro) was 4.76 female/female/generation at the concentration of 1000 ppm, c
... Show MoreThe significance of the current research lies in studying the impact of the Guidance Technique (Stopping Negative Thinking) to reduce psychological reluctance in swimming lessons among female students of Physical Education and Sports Sciences highlighting the concept of psychological reluctance and how to confront it in the swimming lessons. The research provides a comprehensive and integrated theoretical framework that benefits the guiding process, contributing to the development of guiding programs that help reduce or eliminate psychological reluctance. Additionally, this research offers a psychological reluctance scale, aiding in the evaluation and diagnosis of students for the purpose of guiding them. The research addressed an i
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the theoretical foundations for measuring and analyzing quality costs and continuous improvement, as well as measuring and analyzing quality costs for the Directorate of Electricity Supply / Middle Euphrates and continuous improvement of the distribution of electrical energy,The problem was represented by the high costs of failure and waste in electrical energy result to the excesses on the network and the missing (lost) energy,Thus, measuring and analyzing quality costs for the distribution of electrical energy and identifying continuous improvement leads to a reduction in missing and an increase in sales, as the research reached many conclusions, the most important of which is the high percentage o
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Kamel, S.H., R.F. Al-Jassani and H.A. Al-Shammari. 2022. Effects of Pseudomonas fluorescens, Bacillus thuringiensis tenebrionis Isolates and Biologically Synthesized Silver Nanoparticles on Cellulase Enzyme Activity in Workers' Digestive System of the Termite Microcerotermes diversus Silv. Arab Journal of Plant Protection, 40(4): 315-324. https://doi.org/10.22268/AJPP-40.4.315324 The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of different bacterial isolates of P. fluorescens and B. t. tenebrionis and silver nanoparticles on the activity of the cellulase enzyme in termites' middle digestive system and its role in glucose release by treating cellulose media with bacterial strains and nanoparticles. Ultraviolet spectroscopy re
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