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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Life Science And Applied Research
THE ROLE OF OPTIFEED®, VÊO® PREMIUM, AND OLEOBIOTEC® IN DIETS FOR IMPROVEMENT OF THE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE OF MALE BROILERS IN HEAT STRESS
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The present study was conducted to investigate the effect of adding various levels of Optifeed®, VêO® premium and Oleobiotec® to the diets as appetite stimulants in the production Performance of broiler males under heat stress conditions. The experiment was done for 42 days for the period from 30 August 2018 to 11 of October 2018 at the Poultry Research Station of the Livestock Research Department / Agricultural Research Department / Ministry of Agriculture (Baghdad - Abu Ghraib). In this study, 270 - one-day broiler males (Ross 308) were reared with the mean body weight of 37 g/chick, distributed randomly on 18 pens with dimensions of 2 x 3 m (length x width). The experimental treatments involved six treatments with three repli

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 02 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of dental implant stability during healing period and determination of the factors that affect implant stability by means of resonance frequency analysis(Clinical study)
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Background: Implant stability is considered one of the most important factors affecting healing and successful osseointegration of dental implants. The aims of the study were to measure the implant stability quotient (ISQ) values during the healing period and to determine the factors that affect implant stability. Materials and methods: Thirty patients enrolled in the study (17 female, 13 male). They received 44 Implantium® Dental Implants located as the following: 22 implants in maxillary jaw, 22 implants in mandibular jaw from them 17 implants in anterior segment and 27 in posterior segment. The bone density determined using interactive CT scan and classified according to the Misch bone density classification (29 implants in (D3), 15 i

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 11 2016
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية الاساسية
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Metal Complexes of [4- chloro-N- 1,5-dimethy l-3-oxo-2- phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4- ylcarbamothioyl(benzamide)
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A new ligand [4-chloro-N-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3- dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylcarb amothioyl) benzamide] (CAP) was synthesized by reaction of P-ChloroBenzoyl isothio cyanate with 4- aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by micro elemental analysis C.H.N.S.,FT-IR,UV-Vis and1H13CNMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(CAP)2(H2O)2]Cl2(M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral

Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of e-learning on learning the skills of short Service and front-dimensional blow for badminton players under the age of 15 years.
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AO Dr. Ali Jihad, Journal of Physical Education, 2021

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the Office of Financial Supervision in the federal control over health and sustainable development: Applied research in the Baghdad Soft Drinks Company
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The study aims to indicate the role of strategic financial accounting  in the service investors  to take appropriate decisions in the future, Through what is provided by the strategic accounting, the future of information and data that enable the investor to make future investment decisions appropriate، If no longer traditional financial accounting putting meet all existing and prospective investors Requirements، That reliance on historical data and information already signed and neglected aspect of future, From this point it was to highlight the role of strategic financial accounting to contribute in this area.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Commercial banks in Iraq had applied in practice different forms of its activities upon surplus funds that deposited from individual, firms and many governments units
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These deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .

The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank.           &nbs

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The Effect of Boot Camp Training Program on the Development of Special Strength and Some Biomechanical Indicators of the Triple Jump in Young Female Athletes
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The qualitative concept of training experienced athletes is not limited to strength training alone, but extends to general physical conditioning and, ultimately, to special strength training during the specific phases of athletic preparation, depending on the type of sport practiced. Since athletic training should not follow a single, monotonous pattern, the researchers adopted modern Boot camp exercises to develop special strength and biomechanical variables for female triple jump athletes. The study aimed to design Boot camp exercises specifically to enhance special strength and certain biomechanical indicators in young female triple jump athletes, and to identify the impact of these exercises on their performance. The researchers

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE CUSTOMER Field research at the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs
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Abstract:
      This research emerged due to the needs of Iraqi social sector for diagnosing the problems ,finding the appropriate solutions,and exploiting the social opportunities to solve these problems .The research problem focused on raising the following question: "Were Iraqi Managers in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs able to use their qualifications as social entrepreneurs in the ministry to improve the quality of life of the disadvantaged groups?", In light of that, the importance and objectives of the study were determined, and this research derives its importance from trying to address social problems by measuring the degree of meeting the subjective and objective needs of the custo

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of big data analytics in measuring and analyzing the quality costs of economic units : applied research in the Iraqi company for seed production
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                The research aims to explain the role of huge data analyzes in measuring quality costs in the Iraqi company for the production of seed, and the research problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the approved method to measure quality costs, and the weak traditional systems of data analyzes, the researcher in the theoretical aspect relied on collecting sources and previous studies, as well as Adoption of the applied analytical approach in the practical aspect, as a set of financial analyzes were applied within the measurement of quality costs and a statement of the role of data analyzes in the practical side, the research concluded to a set of conc

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Levels of premenstrual psychological and physical Problems (Premenstrual Syndrome-PMS) of Students of the Colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex/ University of Baghdad
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Objectives: To assess levels of premenstrual psychological disorders of the students in Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex and to find out the relationship between the levels of premenstrual psychological and physical disorders and some demographic characteristics of the students. Methodology: A descriptive study was accomplished throughout the period from the 1st of October, 2015 to the 8th of July, 2016 to assess the psychological and physical problems. A purposive sample of 313 students distributed among different colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dam complex distributed as following: 82 students are from college of Arts; 79

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