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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Contemporary Risk Factors of High Blood Pressure for Youth Group (18-24) Years for Students of Technical Institute in Baquba and University of Diyala
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Objective: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between high blood pressure and
different variables, such as (weight, smoking, amount of salt and water taken daily, and number
of hours of natural sleep per person) for young people.
Methodology: The study was conducted on students at the student community of the Technical
Institute in Baquba and the University of Diyala during the period from September 2015
until June 2016. The patients ranged in age from 18-24 years. All data were collected through
a questionnaire that included the main reasons and periodic follow-up of the disease.
Results: The total number of samples was 450.The results showed that 33% of all samples
have high blood pressure. The rel

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of public expenditure and public revenue on some of the intangible components of social development in Iraq for the period 1985-2008
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تحتل أدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاقية والإيرادية) مكانة مهمة بين أدوات السياسات الاقتصادية الأخرى لما تتمتع به من تأثيرات اقتصادية واجتماعية على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي .

     وفي بحثنا هذا سنركز على الآثار الاجتماعية لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والإيراد العام) لما للتنمية الاجتماعية من أهمية متزايدة في عالمنا اليوم خاصة فيما يتعلق بمقوماتها غير المادية المتمثلة في خدما

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Empowerment administrative Factors and its impact on Performance of the service organization An analytic Research at the Ministry of Interior – General Directorate of Traffic
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Abstract

The research study about the empowerment as an independent variable, in which details include (training and improvement, incentives, information sharing, trust, and delegation), has also focused on the performance of the service organization as a dependent variable in all dimensions which include (improve work efficiency, building the core competencies, focus on the beneficiary of the service, increasing the feeling of satisfaction of the employees, and the organizational support commitment). The research has been based on the opinions of a chosen sample of 75 service officers of the Ministry of Interior who work at the General Directorate of Traffic. The research problem has been identified by t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of the Regression Tree and the Support Vector Machine in the Classification of the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the Period 2019-2020
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 The financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets. In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Phytochemical Screening of Petroleum Ether Fractions by GC/MS and Isolation of Lupeol from Two Different Parts of Iraqi Leucaena leuco-cephala. (Conference Paper )#
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Abstract

This work is considered the first study for the components of the Iraqi Leucaena leucocephala plant, where the different phytochemical compounds that present in the aerial parts were identified by using the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry technique (GC/MS). The type of the components and their concentration will differ according to the part of the plant used and the method of extraction (hot and cold). This study made a comparison in lupeol concentration that was identified and isolated from petroleum ether fractions of Leucaena leucocephala by using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS), High-performance thin-layer chromatography (HPTLC), and Preparative High-Performance Li

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Quality and originality in scientific research from the point of view of the participants in the course (qualification of scholars of Bayt al-Hikma)
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Research aims (Quality and originality in scientific research from the point of view of the participants in the course (qualification of scholars of Bayt al-Hikma) To find out how satisfied the participants about the training course held by the house of wisdom (research community), To develop and maximize the capacity of researchers in the field of writing scientific research, As well as establishing frameworks and concepts and standards related to quality and authenticity scientific research, The role played by this kind of research in the service of the movement of the human journey towards progress and prosperity.

On this basis was the research community, their number was (23) common t

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the causal relationship between the gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product for the agricultural sector for the period 1980 -2010
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Despite Iraq's possession of the energies material, human and agricultural resources and great economic but that contribution of the agricultural sector in the total gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product in the Iraqi economy remained low and declining continuously since the nineties of the last century, as well as the inability of agricultural production to meet the country's needs of food . The food gap increased strategic food crops until it reached 1049 thousand tons in 2010. On this basis, there is a need to study and analysis the behavior of the function of  gross fixed capital format

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Relationship between the Strategies of E-marketing mix and Marketing Effectiveness of the Palestinian Small Business Industrial Organizations in the City of Hebron
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In the city of Hebron, small business industrial organizations face a major challenge related to its ability to reach, attract and sustain a sufficient number of customers in order to ensure its continuity and sustainability. The research problem is summarized in an attempt to reveal how the e-marketing could improve and support the marketing effectiveness of small business industrial organizations in the city of Hebron/Palestine. The importance of this research stems from the fact that it addresses a new knowledge branch of the field of marketing, which is electronic marketing for small business organizations, and the fact that the research highlights appropriate marketing solutions for these organizations in light of the Intern

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Equity financing within the framework the signal theory and its reflection on prices of stocks avarege: an empirical study in the Iraq stock exchange
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 Since there is no market for bond issuance by companies in the Iraqi market and the difficulty of borrowing, companies must resort to proprietary financing to finance their investments. However, in the framework of the literature of financial management, the type of financing used by the company sends signals to investors and therefore reflected on the market value. Therefore, the problem of the study revolves around the variables of the study (Equity financing within the framework the signal theory, price of common stock in the Iraqi market).     

The study aims to verify the impact of the capital increase through the issuance of new stock on the price of

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Influence of behavioural implication of information on the selection of accounting methods and their reflection on investor's decisions field study on Iraq stock exchange
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The research aims to highlight on the behavioural approach in accounting, and clarify the behavioural implications of the main activities of accounting, and clarify the concept of information inductance within the framework of the behavioural approach and its impact on preparing financial statements. And that the impact of financial information on the behaviour of investment decision-makers, and to achieve the goals of the research, the researcher prepared a questionnaire according to Likert five-step scale, and he took into consideration in preparing it in line with the characteristics of the study community, and that the target community for this questionnaire is the investors in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The researcher reached

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