Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
KE Sharquie, SA Al Mashhadani, AA Noaimi, RK Al-Hayani, SA Shubber, Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2012 - Cited by 1
1-Objective:- Polyphenols are biochemical compounds with antioxidant activity against differences diseases related to Lipid peroxidation such as diabetes mellitus. Polyphenols distributed widely in medical plants, the aim of the study is to extract and analyze some polyphenolic compounds from grape seeds and examine their effects on (STZ) induced diabetic mice. 2-Methods:- In the present study , a group of polyphenols has been extracted from Iraq
... Show MoreThe inhibition of 3-Benzyl -2-mercaptoquinoizoline -4 (3H)-one (BMQ) on the corrosion of carbon steel in 0.5 M HCl studied by potentionstat polarization methods at 303–333 K. Results obtained show that BMQ act as inhibitor for carbon steel in HCl solution. The inhibition efficiency increase with increase in BMQ concentration. Activation parameters and Gibbs free energy for the adsorption process using Statistical Physics calculated and discussed. Quantum chemical calculations using DFT at the B3LYP/6-31G level of theory were used to calculate some electronic properties of the molecule to verify any correlation between the inhibitive effect and molecular structure of BMQ. The quantum calculations were proceeded to get data around correlati
... Show MoreIn this research the Inter-Particle Expectation Values have been studied for atomics Helium (He) and Beryllium (Be) also for He-like ions, Be-like ions (Li-1, B+1? Li+1, Be+2, B+3) by using Hartree-Fock wave functions, We compared the results to some ions which have the same atomic number from each group with atomic number, We compared the results with published calculations to the last studied .
In this research we investigated the corrosion behavior of the commertialy pure titanium and Ti-6Al-4V alloy that coated with hydroxyapatite by electrochemical deposition with applied voltage (6,9,12) Volt from aqueous solution containing Ca(NO3)2.H2O =7.0 gm/l , (NH4)2HPO4 =3.5 gm/l , Na(NO3)2 = 8.5 gm/l in order to improve the bonding strength of hydroxyapetite and medical metals and alloys and increasing the biocompatibility. The coating layer morphology was investigated by XRD, Optical microscope , and SEM tests, the corrosio tests was made by use senthesys simulated body fluid (SBF) , and we found that the propreate voltage for coatint on Ti was 9 Volt and for Ti-6Al-4Vwas12Volt.
The job that confronts players with the effectiveness of shooting with an air rifle is high, so it requires necessary functional adaptations that differ in their degrees from other sports. Regular training in air rifle shooting leads to physiological changes in most of the body's internal systems, and changes and responses can be identified. The functional accompanying physical activity through the presence of body components that reflect these physiological changes in the form of changes in some components, and the importance of research lies in studying the physiological changes accompanying the maximum physical effort and the consequent development of the level of achievement in the effectiveness of shooting with air rifle and body
... Show MoreAluminum oxide thin films were prepared by dc reactive sputtering technique using different mixing ratios of argon and oxygen gases (90:10, 70:30, 50:50, 30:70, and 10:90). These films were characterized to introduce their crystalline structures, surface morphology, and elemental composition. A progressive transition occurs from a predominantly amorphous to a highly crystalline Al2O3 film as the oxygen content in the Ar:O2 gas mixture is increased. Increasing the oxygen content leads to a progressive decrease in surface roughness, resulting in smoother and more uniform films with finer granular features. The oxygen-rich environments yield the smoothest surfaces, while argon-rich environments result in significantly rougher surfaces. These f
... Show MoreAAA AL-NUAIMY, MH ABDLL-ABASS, Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2007
The research topic dealt with the strategic recovery of the insurance service, which is one of the approaches that have an important role in providing solutions and remedies for the recession that affects companies and hinders them from achieving their strategic goals. The research also addressed the strategic objectives of the company as the rationale and actual guide for companies of all activities in order to protect their systems from deviation for its desired purpose. So the aim of the research is to demonstrate the repercussions of the strategic recovery of the insurance Service represented by (compensation, speed of response, apology, initiative (identifying the problem). The company's strategic goals are represented (prof
... Show MoreElectrocoagulation process was employed for the treatment of river water flows in Iraq. In this study, a batch Electrocoagulation process was used to treat river water taken from Al - Qadisiyah water treatment plant. electrolysis time, voltage and inter-electrode spacing were the most important parameters to study . A statistical model was developed using the RSM model. The optimum condition after studying the parameter effect the process was 1 cm separating, 30 volts . The RSM model shows the ideal condition of removal for both the TSS and turbidity at 1 cm, 20 volts and 55 min.