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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Bitcoin Prediction with a hybrid model
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. In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction a

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 18 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nanoscience
Plasma Production and Applications: A Review
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Large amounts of plasma, the universe’s fourth most common kind of stuff, may be found across our galaxy and other galaxies. There are four types of matter in the cosmos, and plasma is the most common. By heating the compressed air or inert gases to create negatively and positively charged particles known as ions, electrically neutral particles in their natural state are formed. Many scientists are currently focusing their efforts on the development of artificial plasma and the possible advantages it may have for humankind in the near future. In the literature, there is a scarcity of information regarding plasma applications. It’s the goal of this page to describe particular methods for creating and using plasma, which may be us

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of real estate investment projects with framework theory of real options: A case study in the shopping center project (Baghdad Mall)
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Focused research aims to provide a framework cognitive analytical nature of real estate investments and how they evaluated in the light of the assessment tools of modern theory of real options, and the possibility to rely on that theory in the detection of the true value of projects, real estate investments that would maximize the value of the investment decision taken, and the analysis of those projects that arise in the real estate markets and environments is the organization, which she was to make sure cases and high-risk, compared with entrances techniques, discounted cash flow (net present value). Based on the assumption lies in the possibility of the application of the implic

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
THE EVOLUTION OF PLANETARY NEBULAE(PN) AND FADING TIME ACCORDING TO SYNTHETIC MODEL
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Abstract Planetary nebulae (PN) represents the short phase in the life of stars with masses (0.89-7) M☉. Several physical processes taking place during the red giant phase of low and intermediates-mass stars. These processes include :1) The regular (early ) wind and the envelope ejection, 2) The thermal pulses during Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB ) phase. In this paper it is briefly discussed how such processes affect the mass range of Planetary Nebulae(PN) nuclei(core) and their evolution, and the PN life time, and fading time for the masses which adopted. The Synthetic model is adopted. The envelope mass of star (MeN ) and transition time (ttr) calculated respectively for the parameter (MeR =1.5,2, 3×10-3 M☉). Another time scale is o

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Neural Network with Speaker Applications
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In Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) the non-linear data projection provided by a one hidden layer Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), trained to recognize phonemes, and has previous experiments to provide feature enhancement substantially increased ASR performance, especially in noise. Previous attempts to apply an analogous approach to speaker identification have not succeeded in improving performance, except by combining MLP processed features with other features. We present test results for the TIMIT database which show that the advantage of MLP preprocessing for open set speaker identification increases with the number of speakers used to train the MLP and that improved identification is obtained as this number increases beyond sixty.

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 15 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of R.s.c.b.
Versatile Applications of Complexes with Some Lanthanide Elements: A Review
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Cerium (III), Neodymium (III) and Samarium (III) Complexes existent a wide range of implementation that stretch from their play in the medicinal and pharmaceutical area because of their major significant pharmacological characteristic such as antifungal, anti-cancer, anti-bacterial ,anti-human immunodeficiency virus ,antineoplastic, anti-inflammation,inhibition corrosion,in some industrial (polymers, Azo dye).It is likely to open avenuesto research among various disciplines such as physics, electronics, chemistry and materials science by these complexes that contain exquisitely designed organic molecules.This paper reviews the definition, importance and various applications of Cerium (III), Neodymium (III) and Samarium (III) Complexes anddi

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 06 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Versatile Applications of Complexes with Some Lanthanide Elements: A Review
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Cerium (III), Neodymium (III) and Samarium (III) Complexes existent a wide range of implementation that stretch from their play in the medicinal and pharmaceutical area because of their major significant pharmacological characteristic such as antifungal, anti-cancer, anti-bacterial ,anti-human immunodeficiency virus ,antineoplastic, anti-inflammation,inhibition corrosion,in some industrial (polymers, Azo dye).It is likely to open avenuesto research among various disciplines such as physics, electronics, chemistry and materials science by these complexes that contain exquisitely designed organic molecules.This paper reviews the definition, importance and various applications of Cerium (III), Neodymium (III) and Samarium (III) Complexe

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 02 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering Research And General Science
IT Auditing to Assure a Secure Cloud Computing for Enterprise Applications
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Recently, all over the world mechanism of cloud computing is widely acceptable and used by most of the enterprise businesses in order increase their productivity. However there are still some concerns about the security provided by the cloud environment are raises. Thus in this our research project, we are discussing over the cloud computing paradigm evolvement for the large business applications like CRM as well as introducing the new framework for the secure cloud computing using the method of IT auditing. In this case our approach is basically directed towards the establishment of the cloud computing framework for the CRM applications with the use of checklists by following the data flow of the CRM application and its lifecycle. Those ch

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
International Communications In Heat And Mass Transfer
Design optimization and performance analysis of a PCM-to-air heat exchanger with optimized fin configuration for building heating applications
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of a-Si:H Absorption Edge Using Dunstan’s Model
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The optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a

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