This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
This paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return
... Show MoreResearchers often equate database accounting models in general and the Resources-Events-Agents (REA) accounting model in particular with events accounting as proposed by Sorter (1969). In fact, REA accounting, database accounting, and events accounting are very different. Because REA accounting has become a popular topic in AIS research, it is important to agree on exactly what is meant by certain ideas, both in concept and in historical origin. This article clarifies the analyzing framework of REA accounting model and highlights the differences between the terms events accounting, database accounting, semantically-modeled accounting, and REA accounting. It als
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will discuss the performance of Bayesian computational approaches for estimating the parameters of a Logistic Regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was the base estimation procedure. We present two algorithms: Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also applied these approaches to a real data set.
This paper proposes and studies an ecotoxicant system with Lotka-Volterra functional response for predation including prey protective region. The equilibrium points and the stability of this model have been investigated analytically both locally and globally. Finally, numerical simulations and graphical representations have been utilized to support our analytical findings
The research deals with metaphors as being one of the primary means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel " Sincerely Yours Shurik ", to form diverse and multifaceted collective female images of representatives of the classic psychological patterns presented in the work. This research reflects the results of the study related to the work of Lyudmila Yevkinevna Ulitskaya, an actress of modern Russian prose. The novel "The Sincerely to You Shorek" is one of Ludmila Ulitskaya's creations (the year of writing - 2003), which, like her other works, is distinguished by a unique presentation style, rich vocabulary, lexical and semantic diversity, and a special style of writing. writer. The main objective of the research is to look at th
... Show MoreThe article is devoted to the Russian-Arabic translation, a particular theory of which has not been developed in domestic translation studies to the extent that the mechanisms of translation from and into European languages are described. In this regard, as well as with the growing volumes of Russian-Arabic translation, the issues of this private theory of translation require significant additions and new approaches. The authors set the task of determining the means of translation (cognitive and mental operations and language transformations) that contribute to the achievement of the most equivalent correspondences of such typologically different languages as Russian and Arabic. The work summarizes and analyzes the accumulated exper
... Show MoreThe Current research aims to identify ( the effect of Carin model in the achievement of the first intermediate Grade Students and their Reflective Thinking in physics Subject ) the researcher selected the experimental design with a partial adjust , The research sample consisted of ( 47 ) Students with ( 23 ) Students in the experimental group and ( 24 ) Students in the control group , The two groups rewarded in the variables chronological age in months , Reflective Thinking and the degrees in physics in the first course. The researcher coined the purposes of behavioral which belong to chapter fifth, sixth, and seventh of physics books scheduled of the school year ( 2015-2016 ) and prepared appropriate lesson plans for the two experimenta
... Show More