Sewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the deterioration models' application showed that NNDM gave the highest overall prediction efficiency of 93.6% by adapting the confusion matrix test, while multinomial logistic regression was inconsistent with the data. The error in prediction of related model was due to its inability to reflect the dependent variable (condition classes) ordered nature.
Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problem
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Aqueous extract of poppy plant) Papaver nudicaule) with five concentrations (50, 100, 150, 200 and 250) mg/l were used to anesthetize fingerlings of the common carp Cyprinus carpio (Mean total length 8.91 ± 0.31 cm and mean total weight 7.72 ± 1.19 gm) instead of the traditional use of MS-222. Results showed that extracted solution of poppy have partial and overall anesthesia effect on these fishes with inverse relationship between the concentrations used and the time needed to reach partial and overall anesthesia, and also direct relationship between concentrations used and time needed for fish recovery. Best results were obtained by using a concentration of 250 mg/l, where time for partial anesthesia was 8 ± 1.52 m
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