النموذج الرمادي GM(1
1)
الطريقة التراكمية (ACC)
الطريقة الأسية (EXP)
الطريقة الأسية المعدلة (Mod EXP)
طريقة سرب الجسيمات (PSO)
الوقود الثقيل (HFO)
وقود الديزل (D.O).
GM(1
1)
ACC
EXP
Mod EXP
PSO
HFO
D.O .
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Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
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