Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The current paper investigates the effect of cut-out design parameters on load-bearing capacity and buckling behaviour of steel cylindrical shell using a nonlinear finite element analysis in modelling cylinder buckling under longitudinal compressive load. The effect of four geometry design parameters: shell diameter to thickness ratio, cut-out location, orientation, and size were investigated in this study. To enhance the prediction of buckling behaviour, both geometrical and material nonlinearities were considered. An ANSYS APDL code was written and tested by verifying its validity through comparison with former buckling study. The results showed that changing the cut-out location from mid-height of the cylindrical shell towards a

This research is an attempt to develop exercise with weights to strengthen some of the striking muscles in the shoulder and arm and to develop the accuracy of the smash and rectum skills. The importance of this paper lies in the study of moments of force to achieve the ability to control muscular work and to explore the impact of physical and skill exercises with weights to develop moments of force for some muscles. The experimental method on a sample of players, selected according to the intentional method, including ( 9) advanced players representing Air Force Club participating in the Premier League for season 2011-2012. It is concluded that the exercises proposed have their effective impact on developing the variables of moments force f

Objectives: To assess levels of premenstrual psychological disorders of the students in Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex and to find out the relationship between the levels of premenstrual psychological and physical disorders and some demographic characteristics of the students. Methodology: A descriptive study was accomplished throughout the period from the 1st of October, 2015 to the 8th of July, 2016 to assess the psychological and physical problems. A purposive sample of 313 students distributed among different colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dam complex distributed as following: 82 students are from college of Arts; 79 students are from College of Languages; 48 students are from college of Islamic Sciences: and 104 are from College of Nursing. For t

In this research the subject of human ability to change, as it is proven in the Koran , which is proof of the argument against the ability of human change , whether the change in the positive or negative direction .
Here the limits of the research are limited to a study of analysis of human ability to change and this establishes the important of knowing that man has the ability while in the wrong way to change the path to the right path which Gifts and guidance .
The search required three demands and conclusion
- The first required :- is to try the idolaters to take out believers by right .
- The second required :- is to change what is inside the soul as a reason to enter blessings on man .
- The third required :- is good

The Current Research Seeks To Identify The Possibility Of Unifying The Private Drinking Stations In The Session In A Single Station In Order To Prevent Pollution. In Order To Achieve The Goal Of The Current Research, The Researcher Followed The Descriptive Survey Approach. The Researcher Identified The Research Community As Working In Institutions Related To Drinking Water Filtering In The Governorate Of Baghdad, And In Order To Collect Data And Information Necessary To Answer The Study's Question (Is It Possible To Supply Private Drinking Stations With One Station?) Researcher Designed A Questionnaire Consisting Of (10) Paragraphs Measuring Aspects Of This Topic, And Applied It To A Sample Of Employees And Workers Amounted To (200) People,