Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

When a vehicle is left parked in the sun for an extended period, the gathered heat causes damage to several interiors within the cabin and causes discomfort for people and animals left inside the car. In the present work, the effect of the orientation of a parked white minibus on temperature distribution and cooling load calculation is studied experimentally in an open environment. Two different cases were studied facing south and facing east. For several hours, the temperature inside the car cabin had been monitored and measured at five separate locations. The cooling load calculations are carried out based on the experimental measurements. The results show that the overheating of parked cars always happens as a result

The study of the validity and probability of failure in solids and structures is highly considered as one of the most incredibly-highlighted study fields in many science and engineering applications, the design analysts must therefore seek to investigate the points where the failing strains may be occurred, the probabilities of which these strains can cause the existing cracks to propagate through the fractured medium considered, and thereafter the solutions by which the analysts can adopt the approachable techniques to reduce/arrest these propagating cracks.In the present study a theoretical investigation upon simply-supported thin plates having surface cracks within their structure is to be accomplished, and the applied impact load to the

New, simple and sensitive batch and reverse FIA spectrophotometric methods for the determination of doxycycline hyclate in pure form and in pharmaceutical preparations were proposed. These methods based on oxidative coupling reaction between doxycycline hyclate and 3-methylbenzothiazolinone-2-hydrazone hydrochloride (MBTH) in the presence ammonium ceric sulfate in acidic medium, to form green water-soluble dye that is stable and has a maximum absorbance at 626 nm. A calibration graph shows that a Beer's law is obeyed over the concentration range of 1-80 and 0.5-110 ?g.mL-1 of DCH for the batch and rFIA respectively with detection limit of 0.325 ?g.mL-1 of DCH for r-FIA methods. All different chemicals and physical experimental paramete

In the present study, a novel ligand (L) made of 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde and 3-hydrazone-1,3-dihydro-indole-2-one(3-[(3-hydroxynaphthalen-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one). The ligand was characterized by FTIR, UV-vis, mass, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and CHN elemental analysis. New complexes of this ligand were created by treating methanol and a drop of DMF solution of the produced ligand with the hydrated metal salts of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) in a molar ratio of 2:1 (L:M). As a result, complexes have been emerged and identified FTIR, UV-vis, C.H.N., chloride-containing, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, and atomic absorption. The characterization result for each complex indicated complexes wi

The problem of research was to identify after the use of cost technology based on specifications in the validity of determining and measuring the costs of the implementation of contracting, by applying to al-Mansour General Construction Contracting Company as an appropriate alternative to the traditional costing system currently adopted, which is characterized by many shortcomings and weaknesses Which has been reflected in the validity and integrity of the calculations. To solve this problem, the research was based on the premise that: (The application of cost technology based on specifications will result in calculating the cost of the product according to the specification required by the customer, to meet his wishes properly and witho

Focusing of Gaussian laser beam through nonlinear media can induce spatial self- phase modulation which forms a far field intensity pattern of concentric rings. The nonlinear refractive index change of material depends on the number of pattern rings. In this paper, a formation of tunable nonlinear refractive index change of hybrid functionalized carbon nanotubes/silver nanoparticles acetone suspensions (F-MWCNTs/Ag-NPs) at weight mixing ratio of 1:3 and volume fraction of 6x10-6 , 9x10-6 , and 18x10-6 using laser beam at wavelength of 473nm was investigated experimentally. The results showed that tunable nonlinear refractive indices were obtained and increasing of incident laser power density led to increase the nonlinear refractive inde

ھدف البحث الـــــى : ١ -إعداد تدریبات القوة الارتدادیة في وسطین متباینین على بعض المؤشرات الفسیولوجیة لتطویر القوة الانفجاریة ودقة مھارتي الأرسال والضرب الساحق بالكرة الطائرة . ٢ -التعرف على تأثیر تدریبات القوة الارتدادیة في وسطین متباینین على بعض المؤشرات الفسیولوجیة لتطویر القوة الانفجاریة.. ٣ -التعرف على تأثیر تدریبات القوة الارتدادیة في وسطین متباینین على دقة مھارتي الأرسال والضرب الساحق بالكرة الطائرة